Matt Stevens 2025 Post-Week 1 Top 25 College Football Ballot - Welcome to Opening Week Overreactions
IlliniGuys.com’s Matt Stevens gives his first weekly Top 25 ballot with analysis now that we have a data point of evaluation in this 2025 season.
By Matt Stevens - IlliniGuys Football Writer/Analyst
September 2, 2025
Every single time during the months of June, July and early August, I get asked a version of the same questions that start with ‘What do you predict….?’ or ‘Who do you think will (fill in the blank end-of-season result)?
The answer, if I’m being fully honest and I always try to be whenever possible, is three simple words: I. Don’t. Know. And then I usually add in the line of “And if anybody else tells you they do know what will happen, they’re lying to you and you would be wise to be skeptical of them going forward”.
Does this frustrate IlliniGuys.com subscribers to no end? Probably. However, it is my journalistic hill to die on that predicting things before you have any data points to consider is not analysis work that you can trust but instead simply guessing. And if you’re guessing, you’re likely to be wrong more often than you’re correct and accuracy is something that still needs to have value in this society, regardless of the topic at hand.
To predict much of anything over the course of a four to five-month college football season is the definition of a fool’s errand. Once you start to get some data points recorded, it can allow you to become much more accurate in your assessments.
Doing such analysis work after Week 1 is admittedly almost as foolish but we do have at least one data point on every Football Bowl Subdivision program in the 2025 campaign so that’s well….something to consider.
Let the Week 1 overreactions (like trying to figure out how the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa can afford a $69.3 million buyout for the termination of Kalen DeBoer - Hint: They can’t) begin. This is always well….something we do as a college football society so let’s get it over with.