The 13th Annual Dirty Dozen: The NCAA Tournament Predictor That Has Never Missed
By Larry Smith - IlliniGuys Staff Member
March 15th, 2023
(Cover photo courtesy Illinois Athletics)
It was March, 2001. I was at an opening round NCAA tournament game and the gentleman sitting next to me was a veteran referee who had worked numerous postseason tourneys over the years. Recognizing me from CNN/SI, he struck up a conversation. He became so comfortable that he admitted to me that he'd once given a star player's foul to another player in order to keep him in the game.
I was shocked by this revelation. If a referee was fully aware of time and score in the waning moments of a game, what else are they capable of?
When my plane landed, I headed straight for the office to begin my research. Those scribbles would collect in a notebook for eight years when I finally asked myself 'what would happen if I put all of this work into my bracket for the friendly office pool?' The year was 2009 and I ignored the usually clueless pundits of the cable network world and depended solely on my own work. The result: two office pool victories and more than $1,000 in my pocket.
And that's how the Dirty Dozen was born. It's a matrix; examining the top 24 teams - or top six seed lines - the matrix can tell you the 12 teams that will NOT win the NCAA championship.
And it has never missed!
A perfect 12-0 heading into this March. The biggest to fall would have to be the 2015 Kentucky team that finished the regular season undefeated. As I began to share the Dozen list with hoop fans that year, I was often accused of hating Wildcats coach John Calipari and thus called his team "dirty". I would explain that this is not what I say or think; it's the matrix that decides and that's the point. It eliminates bias and all emotion. It doesn't matter who the coach is or what the team did last year or their school colors or how many banners hang in their home arena. It's strictly a numbers game.
Before I reveal the list (note: IlliniGuys members always get the list first), I need to remind you that this is strictly for entertainment. Past results have no bearing on future outcomes. This process has been perfect every year since its inception (there was no Dozen in the COVID years of 2020 & 2021), but at some point it has to fail. As its creator, I am fully aware of this.
So here it is - the 13th annual Dirty Dozen. Like the years before this, I have no faith in its chance of success. It's not the list I would pick personally. So, as much as anything, I'll watch in amazement to see if it can survive again, just as its brothers have before it.
Enjoy the games and may this help enhance your own bracket and earn you a few more dollars in your office pool!
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