Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio
November 25, 2024
Last week, we talked about how dangerous an upset loss would be – particularly to the 2-loss teams from the log-jammed SEC. And this week, there was a stark difference between SEC CFP contenders and their B1G counterparts.
While #7 Alabama lost to a 6-5 Oklahoma team, #9 Ole Miss lost to a 6-5 Florida team and #15 Texas A&M lost to a 5-6 Auburn team, #4 Penn State beat 6-5 Minnesota, and #12 Boise State beat a 2-9 Wyoming. What is the key lesson here?
If you want to play in the CFP, you need to beat the teams you’re supposed to beat. In essence, don’t lose to average teams. Penn State and Boise State avoided that - if only by minute margins.
Here’s a recap of the upsets in the Top 25 yesterday:
As I stated last week (and have believed in a tournament for decades) the expansion to 12 teams has been a rousing success as many teams are key playing games that keep college football fans tuned in and entertained long after they would’ve been eliminated from a 4-team playoff. Anything that keeps teams and fans engaged to this level is more akin to the NFL than any other major sport.
The November 30th weekend features a few key games that have attracted my attention, but not as many as I’d like to see. Maybe the schedule makers will better anticipate next year’s movers and shakers. Or maybe rivalry games can be shuffled a bit. I can already see fans of tradition getting upset at my suggestion of moving rivalry week:
It will be another intriguing weekend for college football fans.
I am still of a mind this year’s results will allow the B1G and the SEC to dodge a bullet when it comes to the relationship between the two conferences. What I mean by this is I don’t think the shots will be flying in both directions. The SEC now only has 3 teams with one or two losses while the B1G has four with none or one. The phenomenon of the SEC eating their own may allow the ACC to sneak a 2nd team into the CFP.
While the SEC is clearly dissatisfied with Indiana’s strength of schedule, the question remains as to why a team with 3 losses should be placed ahead of a team with their only loss to the #2 team in the country regardless of schedule strength.
The other hope that the SEC has is to “steal a bid” ironically lies at the feet of B1G conference member USC. Notre Dame being upset is a way to “find” another bid for the SEC to compete for with one of their 3 loss teams. If Notre Dame stays on course and defeats USC, this could mean the SEC only lands it’s 1 or 2 loss teams.
As it stands now, the B1G can claim four CFP spots, but if the SEC has three 1 or 2 loss teams, you can expect a lot of SEC heat (via ESPN) pushing one or more of its 3 loss teams. An 11-1 Indiana team can't afford another loss (11 wins assumes Indiana beats Purdue – which would be amongst the biggest upsets since Douglas beat Tyson).
After week 13, the B1G already has 12 teams that are either bowling or in the CFP. That’s a heck of a year. If Wisconsin beats Minnesota and Michigan State beats Rutgers, the B1G will have 14 of its 18 teams eligible for postseason play. For comparison, the SEC will have 14 of its 16 teams eligible for postseason if the Auburn Tigers beat Alabama.
With one weekend left in the 2024 college football regular season, the B1G has 4 of the top 10 teams and 5 of the top 25 teams. The SEC has 3 of the top 10 teams and 8 of the top 25 teams. Clearly the B1G looks heavier at the top and the SEC deeper throughout the conference.
Audio Podcast:
https://illiniguys.com/heat-checks-hail-marys-b1g-vs-sec-for-cfp-hot-takes-and-b1g-fb-tiers/
Video Podcast:
Illinois Fighting Illini Win 86-80 versus Wisconsin Badgers - #441
ListenCollege Football Playoffs, Coach Collins Quote, Play Morez Johnson More & Has Drew Allar Arrived & Sturdy Stops In to Talk Illini BB & FB with CFP
ListenDec 6 Weekend - Hour 2 - S4Ep17
ListenDec 6 Weekend - Hour 1 - S4Ep17
ListenIllinois Fighting Illini Lose in OT at Northwestern - #440
ListenIllinois Fighting Illini Football National Signing Day - #439
ListenIllinois Fighting Illini Football Legend Kurt Kittner Talks Illinois & B1G Football #438
ListenHeat Checks & Hail Marys – Ryan Day, High School Football Playoff Solutions & An AD's Response & B1G Football Team Rankings
ListenKed's Recruiting Roundup - Ked interviews Top JUCO Linebacker & Illini Commit Ismael Kante
ListenIllinois Fighting Illini 38-28 Win Over the Northwestern Wildcats – Post Game Analysis #437
ListenIllinois Fighting Illini 38-28 Win Over the Northwestern Wildcats #436
ListenNov 29 Weekend - Hour 2 - S4Ep16
ListenNov 29 Weekend - Hour 1 - S4Ep16
ListenIllinois Fighting Illini 90-77 Win Over Arkansas Razorbacks - #435
ListenIlliniGuys Halftime LIVE - Interview with Grant Beerman 4-Star LB Commit #434
Listen