Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

November 25, 2024

Last week, we talked about how dangerous an upset loss would be – particularly to the 2-loss teams from the log-jammed SEC. And this week, there was a stark difference between SEC CFP contenders and their B1G counterparts.

While #7 Alabama lost to a 6-5 Oklahoma team, #9 Ole Miss lost to a 6-5 Florida team and #15 Texas A&M lost to a 5-6 Auburn team, #4 Penn State beat 6-5 Minnesota, and #12 Boise State beat a 2-9 Wyoming. What is the key lesson here?

If you want to play in the CFP, you need to beat the teams you’re supposed to beat. In essence, don’t lose to average teams. Penn State and Boise State avoided that - if only by minute margins.

Here’s a recap of the upsets in the Top 25 yesterday:

• #5 Indiana lost to #2 Ohio State
• #7 Alabama lost to Oklahoma
• #9 Ole Miss lost to Florida
• #14 BYU lost to #21 Arizona State
• #15 Texas A&M lost to Auburn
• #16 Colorado lost to Kansas
• #19 Army lost to #6 Notre Dame

As I stated last week (and have believed in a tournament for decades) the expansion to 12 teams has been a rousing success as many teams are key playing games that keep college football fans tuned in and entertained long after they would’ve been eliminated from a 4-team playoff. Anything that keeps teams and fans engaged to this level is more akin to the NFL than any other major sport.

The November 30^th weekend features a few key games that have attracted my attention, but not as many as I’d like to see. Maybe the schedule makers will better anticipate next year’s movers and shakers. Or maybe rivalry games can be shuffled a bit. I can already see fans of tradition getting upset at my suggestion of moving rivalry week:

• #3 Texas at #20 Texas A&M
• Michigan at #2 Ohio State
• #7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
• #16 South Carolina at #12 Clemson
• #5 Notre Dame at USC
• Auburn vs #13 Alabama
• #8 Miami at Syracuse
• Kansas State at #17 Iowa State

It will be another intriguing weekend for college football fans.

Hail Mary #1 – How Long Will the SEC & B1G Play Nice with CFP Invites on the Line – Part III?

I am still of a mind this year’s results will allow the B1G and the SEC to dodge a bullet when it comes to the relationship between the two conferences. What I mean by this is I don’t think the shots will be flying in both directions. The SEC now only has 3 teams with one or two losses while the B1G has four with none or one. The phenomenon of the SEC eating their own may allow the ACC to sneak a 2^nd team into the CFP.

While the SEC is clearly dissatisfied with Indiana’s strength of schedule, the question remains as to why a team with 3 losses should be placed ahead of a team with their only loss to the #2 team in the country regardless of schedule strength.

The other hope that the SEC has is to “steal a bid” ironically lies at the feet of B1G conference member USC. Notre Dame being upset is a way to “find” another bid for the SEC to compete for with one of their 3 loss teams. If Notre Dame stays on course and defeats USC, this could mean the SEC only lands it’s 1 or 2 loss teams.

As it stands now, the B1G can claim four CFP spots, but if the SEC has three 1 or 2 loss teams, you can expect a lot of SEC heat (via ESPN) pushing one or more of its 3 loss teams. An 11-1 Indiana team can't afford another loss (11 wins assumes Indiana beats Purdue – which would be amongst the biggest upsets since Douglas beat Tyson).

Hail Mary #2 – Hot Takes

• Hot Take #1 – Michigan’s alleged $10 million dollar snaring of QB Bryce Underwood has had one unintended result and it is a good one for Wisconsin. The largely QB-less Badgers have received the commitment of the nation’s top uncommitted 2025 quarterback, Carter Smith. Smith dropped his commitment to Michigan because of Michigan’s pursuit of Bryce Underwood. Michigan gets their guy and Wisconsin does, too.
• Hot Take #2 – Indiana fans looking for respect on the gridiron should at least wait until the regular season is over before crying about a lack of respect. It’s been 57 years since the team’s last B1G championship. No coach has done better than Cignetti this season. To go from the expectations of being #17 in the B1G to top 5 or 10 in the country is nothing short of amazing. Enjoy the season while it's here and worry about the long-term respect for the Hoosiers after the season ends. A new season, new players and a new schedule will provide new challenges and opportunities – live in the moment with this one-in-a-lifetime season.
• Hot Take #3 – I saw pictures of Tyson Fury training for his rematch with Oleksandr Usyk. At this point, he looks in better shape. How much these photos were retouched, I have no idea. If he truly is in better shape, it could be an even closer fight. As a boxing fan, I want to be entertained and both fighters taking training seriously is a huge component of that. Keep working hard Mr. Fury.
• Hot Take #4 – Did we see a new SEC rivalry being born between Oklahoma and Alabama? Both are two of the true bluebloods of college football and despite Oklahoma having a challenging season, they were able to put Alabama’s CFP hopes on life support for the time being. This game went from anticipated in the preseason to meh during this season. Their next meeting will be circled by Alabama coaches, players and fans.
• Hot Take #5 – How the hit on Shedeur Sanders was not flagged is amazing. It was a late hit and a hit aiming at his knees that is as dirty as any you’ll see in the game. Sanders could’ve easily been seriously injured.
• Hot Take #6 – Go see Gladiator II if you enjoyed the original Gladiator movie with Russell Crowe. This movie takes from Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds and plays with historical facts, but it is hugely entertaining. The story line is a bit rushed, and we didn't see time for skills as a gladiator to improve but I assume that like many other sports, maybe being a gladiator can be partly natural talent. Paul Mescal is entertaining as Lucius, the newest talented but wrongly enslaved gladiator. Denzel Washington does a wondrous job of playing the master manipulator who outthinks those around him and Connie Nielsen recreates her role of Lucilla perfectly. It’s not as violent or intense as the original but all in all 3.5 stars out of 4.

Hail Mary #3 – B1G Team Tiers – The Tiers are Separating Themselves

After week 13, the B1G already has 12 teams that are either bowling or in the CFP. That’s a heck of a year. If Wisconsin beats Minnesota and Michigan State beats Rutgers, the B1G will have 14 of its 18 teams eligible for postseason play. For comparison, the SEC will have 14 of its 16 teams eligible for postseason if the Auburn Tigers beat Alabama.

• Tier 1 – Oregon & Ohio State – Only a solitary point divides these two juggernauts who appear to be on a collision course for round two in the conference championship game. Will they play each other a third time in the CFP?
• Tier 2 – Penn State & Indiana – Depending upon the desperation of the SEC both teams and certainly Indiana will be attacked for their lack of “strength of schedule” if the SEC is forced to push 3 loss teams for CFP invites. Neither team can afford an upset this weekend. Both are unlikely to have that happen.
• Tier 3 – Illinois & Iowa – Illinois can achieve the first 9-win season since 2007 with wins over a win over Northwestern. With its only losses to Oregon, Penn State and Minnesota, the Illini have an argument if 3 loss teams are granted CFP bids. Iowa has a chance to win 8 games with a win vs Nebraska. That would mean the Hawkeyes have won 8 games every year since 2014 (with the exception of the 2020 Covid year).
• Tier 4 – Michigan, Minnesota, USC, Nebraska & Washington – All these teams are bowl eligible and all these teams are inconsistent. From week-to-week the tier 3, 4 and 5 of B1G teams are as unpredictable as NFL games. Parity has hit college football.
• Tier 5 – Rutgers, Michigan State & Wisconsin – I expected Michigan State to be in tier 6, so nice job by head coach Jonathan Smith. On one hand, Rutgers had an easy schedule. On the other hand, the Scarlet Knights have been devastated by injuries. It’s been a disappointing year. Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell is too expensive to be fired with current NIL needs, so he’s fired his offensive coordinator Phil Longo, and we will see how that works, next season. Coaches who hated NIL should now love it as the costs of NIL and difficulty in fund-raising is keeping ADs from firing coaches with big buyouts.
• Tier 6 – Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland & UCLA – Purdue is at the bottom. Maryland has underachieved. Northwestern has a talent gap following Fitzgerald’s resignation amid scandal. UCLA was up and down during DeShaun Foster’s first season.

With one weekend left in the 2024 college football regular season, the B1G has 4 of the top 10 teams and 5 of the top 25 teams. The SEC has 3 of the top 10 teams and 8 of the top 25 teams. Clearly the B1G looks heavier at the top and the SEC deeper throughout the conference.

Audio Podcast:

https://illiniguys.com/heat-checks-hail-marys-b1g-vs-sec-for-cfp-hot-takes-and-b1g-fb-tiers/

Video Podcast:

https://illiniguys.com/heat-checks-hail-marys-b1g-vs-sec-for-cfp-hot-takes-and-b1g-fb-tiers-youtube-edition/