Matt Stevens, IlliniGuys Staff Writer

October 9, 2024

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Through the first five weeks of this 2024 season, every team with a loss so far (which now remarkably already includes Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss AND Georgia) can take a breath, regroup and realize that a head-scratching defeat is probably going to happen through a 12-game regular season and one loss (or maybe even two losses) doesn’t knock you out of the College Football Playoff.

In the case of Alabama, where the level of disconcerting over first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer has incorrectly reached a red level of panic, a loss at Vanderbilt wouldn’t even (through the first five weeks of the 2024 season) wouldn’t even knock the Crimson Tide out of a home playoff game in the opening round.

So, while folks on your television (cough-Paul Finebaum-cough) who bask in leaning into the ridiculousness of claiming this is the most embarrassing loss of the Crimson Tide program, Alabama can still very much be considered a favorite to play in Atlanta in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game in a few months.

For Tennessee, a deflating loss at Arkansas, only puts them as the first team out of a 12-team playoff bracket because they still have a road loss at Oklahoma and a number of SEC games to put them right back in the driver's seat of the league to possible host a first-round conference game in Neyland Stadium.

There should be no level of panic right now for folks in Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, Athens and Oxford, Miss.

All of those teams are in the correct position to pounce when the journey of a college football season navigates itself through the next two months.

This all leads to the rare of our undefeated power conference programs left in this 2024 season. Is Texas elite? Probably but they have Red River this weekend at the fairgrounds in Dallas where weirdness has become a recent norm when the Longhorns and Sooners end up on the same football field.

CBS gets its first prime matchup of the Big Ten season when Ohio State and Oregon will commence at the Autzen Zoo where (and here’s a Matt Stevens prediction) one team by the end of the night will have a loss. And here’s another Matt Stevens prediction: I still think both of these programs will play two more times in this 2024 season.

Penn State has been dominant in the sense that except for one quarter versus Bowling Green and one opening drive against Illinois, there’s never been a doubt they were going to lose. However, that doesn’t also mean you’ve ever watched the Nittany Lions and thought “Wow, they are just elite!”.

And then we get to the non-power two conference schools without a loss. Do I have Miami, BYU, Iowa State and Pittsburgh ranked too high? Probably because I don’t think they’re beating Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee or Clemson on a neutral field (and for the sake of Clemson & Pitt, we’ll all find out on Nov. 16). Miami really tried to make the whole ‘ESPN College Gameday’ experience in Berkeley, California certainly memorable but of all the talk about potential first-round quarterbacks in next spring’s draft, Hurricanes signal caller Cam Ward might be the surest thing because that young man just projects confidence and seems like one of those players where the game seems to slow down around him.

I don’t think I’m in the minority of folks who believe Brigham Young, Iowa State and/or Pittsburgh will win their conference but here we are with them at 5-0 right now. Do you want to know why it’s correct that these league champions should get byes into the quarterfinal? Because they should get rewarded for doing the job of being the best team in the stadium every week (which is always the objective) instead of looking like the best team in the country week by week (which is never the objective). Is it cool that BYU, Iowa State and Pitt are in a projected CFP bracket by the second week of October? Yes. Is anybody scared to see any of those three in a quarterfinal matchup? Absolutely not.

Further down the pool, we’re all going to learn a lot from the Ole Miss at LSU matchup this weekend because the winner shoots up the pool in the following week and the loser may need to win out.

Want a fun fact? Of course you do. In the first year where Army and Navy are both in American Athletic Conference, did you know the Army-Navy game this season isn’t technically considered a conference game because it has to be scheduled AFTER the AAC Championship Game? I didn’t until I looked it up this past weekend. Both programs are 5-0 simultaneously for the first time since 1945 and can play twice this season. They are allowed to both play for the AAC title on Dec. 6 and then play in the annual rivalry game on Dec. 14 in Landover, Md. at the home of the NFL’s Washington Commanders. I bring this up because while Boise State, and it’s Heisman Trophy contender running back, continues to roll but what if one of the service academies wins the AAC with an undefeated record but then loses a possible rematch the following rivalry game the next week? Would that loss cost them the automatic qualifier spot of the CFP?

Would a 10-2 Indiana get in the CFP? I say no because at 6-0 right now, I’m not inclined to rank them higher than No. 13 right now. What if Clemson runs the table and wins the ACC title? For one thing, they could get a No. 3 or No. 4 seed with a first-round bye while Georgia, which beat Clemson 34-3 in the season opener in Atlanta, could be hosting or traveling to a first-round game.

Another rivalry issue with CFP implications: If Utah, which will likely need the services of injured quarterback Cam Rising soon, can win its next three games (against Arizona State, Texas Christian and Houston) and BYU can defeat Arizona, Central Florida and Oklahoma State, one of the most intense and little-known rivalry games in college football (“The Holy War”) could surround the Big 12 Conference title.

As far as Illinois goes, they’re likely in a CFP bracket as the fourth team from the B1G if they can pull out a 10-2 finish to this season that would include a competitive loss at Penn State, a loss at Oregon but also wins over Michigan, at Nebraska and at Rutgers.

My Top 25 Ballot (if I had one)

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Oregon
5. BYU
6. Miami (Fla.)
7. Alabama
8. Georgia
9. Iowa State
10. Pittsburgh
11. Clemson
12. Tennessee
13. Indiana
14. Boise State
15. Kansas State
16. Oklahoma
17. Ole Miss
18. Notre Dame
19. Texas A&M
20. SMU
21. Louisiana State
22. Illinois
23. Missouri
24. Navy
25. Michigan

Next 15 Just Out….

1. Arkansas
2. Iowa
3. Syracuse
4. Utah
5. Nebraska
6. Army
7. Liberty
8. Washington State
9. Texas Tech
10. Rutgers
11. Colorado
12. Virginia
13. Washington
14. Southern California
15. California

CFP Playoff Bracket

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State - Winner plays No. 4 Miami (Fla.)

No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Oregon - Winner plays No. 3 BYU

No. 10 Pittsburgh at No. 7 Alabama - Winner plays No. 2 Ohio State

No. 9 Iowa State at No. 8 Georgia- Winner plays No. 1 Texas

Last Four Out: Tennessee, Indiana, Kansas State and Oklahoma