After the first CFP rankings, IlliniGuys.com senior reporter Matthew Stevens have some thoughts that current and future viewers should know about this process.

By Matt Stevens - IlliniGuys Football Writer/Analyst

November 8, 2024

So….following the election night results, we have a lot to talk about don’t we?

Oh no, not that. Trust me, not that. NOT THAT.

On Tuesday night, the first College Football Playoff rankings were released in what has become nothing more and nothing less than a television hour-block time filler for Disney/ABC/ESPN, which owns the broadcast rights to the CFP and is the only broadcast entity with the arrogance and journalistically unethical idea to have an embedded reporter (Heather Dinich) in the CFP committee meetings in Dallas, Texas. In much more clear English, ESPN has been able to market an hour block of talking head television where they (ABC/ESPN) literally cover themselves (the CFP brought to you by ABC/ESPN).

Here’s what is we know - based on the recent history of this endeavor when done in the previously four-team playoff era - about the correlations we can from the weekly rankings to the final rankings on the Sunday after the conference championship games are played. Well, I’m so glad you asked because the answer is….NOTHING!!!!! Nada. Not a thing. Let’s go back to the first CFP rankings in 2014. Disregard the fact that the Top 4 teams ranked in the very first CFP rankings show on Oct. 28, 2014 were Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Mississippi and by the end of the season six weeks later, they were ranked No. 7, No. 3, No. 19 and No. 9. The example of no consistency existing between one week’s rankings to the next is Texas Christian University in this year. On Dec. 2, TCU was ranked No. 3 and firmly into the CFP projected bracket. The Horned Frogs then proceeded to defeat Iowa State at home in the regular season finale by a score of 55-3. When the rankings were revealed the day after that 52-point win, do you want to guess where TCU was ranked? Sixth. Again, one more week of data points to collect and TCU fell three spots. Find the logic there…I dare you.

Okay, so now that we’ve effectively established there is no logical consistency to the weekly rankings, the television program surrounding the weekly rankings (other than an hour block of television where Disney/ABC/ESPN can sell ads in front of a big audience due to a gullible viewership), let’s try to find some uniquely interesting things about this first endeavor with a 12-team format instead of a four-team format.
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My Top 25 Ballot (if I had one)
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. BYU
5. Miami (Fla.)
6. Indiana
7. Penn State
8. Texas
9. Tennessee
10. Boise State
11. Notre Dame
12. Alabama
13. Texas A&M
14. Louisiana State
15. Mississippi
16. SMU
17. Army
18. Washington State
19. Vanderbilt
20. Colorado
21. UNLV
22. Iowa State
23. Louisville
24. Missouri
25. Kansas State

Next 15 Just Out….
1. Clemson
2. Tulane
3. Western Kentucky
4. Iowa
5. Syracuse
6. Louisiana
7. Sam Houston State
8. Minnesota
9. Duke
10. Arizona State
11. James Madison
12. Georgia Southern
13. South Carolina
14. Colorado State
15. Texas Tech
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My CFP Playoff Bracket
No. 12 Alabama at No. 5 Ohio State - Winner plays No. 4 Miami (Fla.)
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Indiana - Winner plays No. 3 BYU
No. 10 Boise State at No. 7 Penn State - Winner plays No. 2 Georgia
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas - Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

Last Five Out: Texas A&M, Louisiana State, Ole Miss, SMU and Army
Last Five Out of Group of 5 playoff spot: Army, UNLV, Tulane and Western Kentucky and Louisiana
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Nov. 5 CFP Top 25 Rankings
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Miami (Fla.)
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. Texas A&M
15. Louisiana State
16. Mississippi
17. Iowa State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Kansas State
20. Colorado
21. Washington State
22. Louisville
23. Clemson
24. Missouri
25. Army
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CFP Playoff Bracket
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State - Winner plays No. 4 Miami (Fla.)
No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Texas - Winner plays No. 3 Miami (Fla.)
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State - Winner plays No. 2 Georgia
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee - Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

Last Five Out: SMU, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Iowa State
Last Out of Group of 5 playoff spot: Army
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- This first CFP bracket includes four teams each from the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference. Only one team (the conference champion) from each the Atlantic Coast Conference and Big 12 Conference are projected to make the field. Beyond the five conference champions, the seven at-large bids are made up by three from Big Ten, three from SEC and Notre Dame.

• The other intriguing element to me to follow for the following five weeks is what this committee will do with Boise State if they finish 11-1 (with their only loss being a very competitive three-point road loss to No. 1 Oregon) as the Group of Five conference champion. Specifically, Boise State is currently ranked No. 12 and that’s so convenient for them because the G5 champion will be automatically slotted as the 12-seed in the playoff bracket unless….they’re ranked higher in the final CFP rankings. It is my hope and not my belief that this committee will give Boise State a proper seeding, over a Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame at-large bid, if they finish 11-1.

• It would appear BYU (8-0, 5-0 in Big 12) is basically pegged for the 4-seed in this bracket as the Big 12 Conference champion unless Miami (Fla.) loses a game. And in my humble opinion, this is wrong. BYU already has blowout wins over Kansas State (in the CFP Top 25) and a 3-point win over SMU (which is the first team out of an at-large). It appears BYU is beginning this process with an uphill climb because of the perceived (right or wrong is your respected opinion either way) strength or weakness of the league they play in and the fact they didn’t start the season ranked in the Associated Press poll.

• What is this committee going to do with the loser of the Big Ten and SEC Championship Games? Over the next few weeks, a four-team battle royal (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana) is going to need to be settled for the two spots of the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. If Ohio State defeats Indiana at home on Nov. 23, every team except Oregon will have one loss and Ohio State will have the head-to-head tiebreakers over Indiana and Penn State. So, what will the result of that rematch between Oregon and Ohio State mean from a seeding aspect the following day when the bracket is revealed? Since every team in the SEC has at least one loss, the question of the result of the SEC Championship Game becomes more interesting because will the loser of that game be dropped out of the bracket entirely while a SEC team that sits at home and will a ACC/Big 12 team doing the same thing watching these title games be rewarded for not suffering a loss? Or will this committee essentially treat these conference championship games like the men’s basketball committee treats championship week? It’s pretty clear basketball committee chairpeople have admitted in media sessions that the NCAA bracket is pretty much seeded and set unless….they need to switch up the teams that earn the automatic bids.