Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular

Cover Photo Courtesy Wisconsin Athletics

November 25, 2025

Heat Check #1 – Two Things Can Be True at Once

The Fighting Illini got beat – and beaten up - by a relentless and intense Badger team on Saturday night. After this loss and the Illini having a chance to being on the verge of a possible 7-5 record with four losses being 53, 18, 17 and 17 points, there is a small group of Illini fans who want big changes in the Illini football program. This is in the face of the pre-season expectations of a possible Illini CFP berth and seeing the Illini come up short with a roster with a returning offensive line and a very good quarterback.

The frustration is not incorrect nor inconceivable, but there is another fact that can also be correct. Bret Bielema has outperformed any expectations had when he was hired and he’s done more in the first five years than any other Illini coach – and that was coming from a disastrous starting position. Only Mike White has succeeded in a similar fashion after coming from a starting point even worse than where Bielema started.

Two things can be true, Bielema has been a rousing success at Illinois and yet this season has left some fans (and likely some players and coaches) disappointed by the results of this season. The key is not to argue about which point of view is right or wrong. The key is to decide what the root cause of the short fall was. What caused this season to slide underneath expectations?

The first question that must be asked is “what are the standards and goals of Illinois football?” This is a conversation that is best had between Josh Whitman and Bret Bielema. Once that is established (I assume this has been in place since Bielema was hired), then Bret Bielema must look at his staff to see who is performing at a level necessary to achieve the goals he and Josh established.

If someone doesn’t meet the criteria, they need to be replaced or moved to a level/position where they can meet the standards necessary to be successful. To achieve goals, everyone must be capable and pull in the same direction that the head coach is leading the team.

The same is true for the roster. If the game plan requires players to play man-to-man defense and they cannot do so, they must either be capable of being coached to do so, or they need to be replaced. Effort and attitude is a must, but so is talent.

Coaches have tools to build the roster including the transfer portal. Thanks to Curt Cignetti, the expectations are to turn it around, to turn it around quickly, and win a ton.

Here is the challenge for Illinois and any other team wanting to win:

• The portal is going to be more expensive than ever because many teams will have more money that they have to spend, and most will choose football to spend it on. Other teams have found the Gospel and have vowed to spend more – Rutgers, Wisconsin and UCLA. LSU has even publicly promised to spend more than the proposed sports “salary cap” - just on football – in a promise to Lane Kiffin (or whoever gets the LSU coaching job).
• Attracting the right players who can handle the change in life of suddenly having some/big money isn’t easy. You can have Indiana Hoosiers of last season (immense success) or last year’s Florida State team (immense failure).
• Having a watertight plan to construct a roster before going into the portal is critical. How much do you spend position-by-position? How much do you spend based on your rating of a player (5-star, 4-star, etc.)? What positions are you “good” at and what positions do you need help at?
• When judging players, you had better be correct. No one wants to go ask for more money next year after the current year’s results haven’t measured up.

The first step is to figure out where you need to improve the staff and the roster. Those two decisions are the hardest to make, the most important, and sometimes, the most painful.

Despite the hard work ahead, Bret Bielema has made the Illini nationally relevant. The season isn’t over. It’s November and the Illini have a chance to win 9 games.

Strange when two things can be true at one time.

Hail Mary #2 – Big Conference Conundrum

The CFP picture is still a bit murky. The SEC backers point to the number of ranked teams and feel the SEC needs more bids than any other conference. B1G backers point to the fact that the SEC was so “overrated” in the preseason polls that losing games hurts less and allows teams to regain footing after a loss because they’re not forced to climb up the polls like other teams who were not ranked.

Where the challenge comes in is with conferences containing too many members for teams to all play each other, too many good teams haven’t faced other good teams. When this happens, who you lose to and how you lost can make more of a difference than who you’ve beaten. If things hold true in the B1G and the favorites win, they will earn 3 spots in this year’s CFP.

Ohio State and Indiana will face each other in the B1G Championship and most likely both will be amongst the top 4 seeds. Oregon should finish 11-1 and host a game – which is something they would’ve loved to have done last year – at least in retrospect.

In the SEC one would think Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia are in the CFP, but their seeding is unclear. Texas probably should be out, as should Tennessee but both teams have shots to score big wins at home this weekend that could make a mess of everything.

Things would be easier if one was able to look at how the top teams fared against one another but looking at common opponents and trying to grade the quality of wins – and losses rules the day.

The B1G’s attempt to get automatic qualifier placements (for example each of the B1G and SEC conferences getting 4 automatic bids) has problems. For example, this season the B1G might only have “earned” 3 teams in the CFP while the SEC may have earned 5 placements. At the same time, having four automatic bids – under the control of a conference – means that conference games rule and they can schedule highly popular games between the two conferences without hurting the chance to play in the CFP.

While the auto bid has drawbacks, it makes the season more enjoyable with teams like Ohio State and Texas willing to schedule and play against each other. In fact, with the B1G and SEC on board with such a system, you could even have B1G teams play 1 or even 2 SEC teams and then go into conference play with a chance to make the CFP.