Mike Cagley, Co-Host of the IlliniGuys Sports Spectacular & Big Sports Radio

January 5, 2025

This week we saw:

• The SEC only has one team in the College Football Playoffs (CFP) Final Four (and Texas has only been an SEC team for a year) – and their presence in the Final Four is largely due to a textbook targeting call being ignored in the waning minutes of their OT win over Arizona State. To be clear, I don’t like the rule but find it baffling that such a rule can be ignored so blatantly.
• The Fighting Illini win the Citrus Bowl as Bret Bielema becomes the enemy of South Carolinian mental health.
• A top 25 matchup in B1G basketball as the #22 Illini destroyed the #9 Oregon Ducks in record setting fashion.

Let’s take a deeper dive into a few subjects…

Heat Check #1 – Was This the Greatest Week for Illini Fans?

Illini fans were in an incredibly satisfying position this past week. They watched an Illini bowl victory (a rare event in itself) followed by seeing the Illini basketball team destroy a top ten opponent on the road by 32 points (a feat never accomplished before). Could this have been the Greatest Week Ever for Illini fans?

We must look at the years the Illini won a New Year’s Day bowl, which the Citrus Bowl is, although this year was different due to the CFP.

The Illini won Rose Bowls in 1946, 1951 and 1963. The Illini also won Citrus Bowls in 1989 and 2024.

When it comes to winning New Year’s Day bowl games, the Illini make the research part simple. Let’s see what happened to Illini basketball the week Illini football won a New Year’s Day bowl:

• 1946 – the Illini men’s basketball team lost to Wisconsin 38-31 on New Year’s Day 1947. This won't qualify.
• 1951 – the Illini men’s basketball team won versus Marquette and Minnesota, sandwiching the Rose Bowl. Minnesota would end up 15-7 and Marquette ended up 12-14. This won’t qualify.
• 1963 – the Illini men’s basketball team won over Notre Dame and Michigan State, sandwiching the Rose Bowl. Notre Dame ended up 10-14 and Michigan State finished at 14-10. This won’t qualify.
• 1989 – the Illini men’s basketball team won against #15 Memphis State and Wisconsin. Close but no cigar.
• 2024 – the Illini men’s basketball team destroyed Chicago State (currently a winless team) and #9 Oregon 109-77 on the road.

This year (2024) is the winner for greatest week to be an Illini fan. At least it is in my book.

Hail Mary #1 – Was 2024 the Greatest Illini Football Season?

This is a question that is impossible to answer. Everyone has the potential for a different answer depending upon your age and experience.

The Rose Bowl winning years were exceptional with the Illini being ranked #5 in 1946, #3 in 1951 and #3 in 1963. The Illini were #10 in 1989, and this year has yet to be determined.

I'm not Loren Tate, so I can't remember all of these seasons in my mind's eye.

To me, there are two incredible teams that are the two that were the most enjoyable of my lifetime. The 1983 Rose Bowl Illini had an incredible year with a loss to begin the season and a deflating Rose Bowl to finish the season. In between, they won 10 games – including home victories over #4 Iowa, #6 Ohio State and #8 Michigan. I attended all home games that season, and it was truly a miraculous experience.

The other team would be this year’s Illini team. This team was selected #13 in the 18-team B1G conference. With paper-thin depth at defensive line and linebacker, the team was expected to fight to go 6-6. Somehow the Illini went 5-1 in one-score games. The offensive line peaked at the end of the season with the defensive line morphing from a roster area of concern to a roster area of strength. The team peaked at the correct time - the end of the season.

I loved both seasons. But, with the last memory of Bret Bielema’s team being a Citrus Bowl victory, I believe that may outweigh the incredible 1983 season that ended with a rough Rose Bowl. The enduring final memory of a win over a loss most likely pushes the 2024 Illini over the top in my book.

Here’s to more seasons like this one coming to Champaign-Urbana soon.

And with Luke Altmyer and a cast of dozens returning, along with some additional NIL dollars to spend, next year might be even better!

I am expecting the Illini to win 10 or 11 games - in the regular season alone. And with 11 games, the Illini will make it to their first CFP appearance.

Heat Check #2 - Three 2025 Illini Predictions

I already managed to spoil one of my three predictions for the Illini in 2025, but here they are:

• The Illini men's basketball team will at least make it back to the Elite Eight with a shot at a Final Four - or even a national title. So much depends upon matchups when it comes to the NCAA tournament. For example, last year the only way the Illini didn't make it to the Final Four was to draw either UConn or Purdue before the Final Four and we all know UConn stopped the Illini in the Elite Eight. The Illini will return to at least the Elite Eight this season.
• The Illini men's golf team will finally break through to win the national title in golf this season. No coach has a better resume than Mike Small and in 2025, he adds the only achievement that has eluded him to his impressive list of coaching accomplishments.
• The Illini football team will win either 10 or 11 games in the regular season in 2025. The CFP will have to entertain the thought of inviting the Illini to the party if Illinois wins 10 games. If the Illini win 11, they are in for certain.

I'll say it first, the 20's Belong to the Illini!

Hail Mary #2 – Did Tennessee and Oregon Belong in the CFP?

Watching SEC fans meltdown after each round of disappointing SEC results in the CFP has been a gift to the nation’s college football fans. “SEC Logic” was dealt crushing blows by Illinois defeating South Carolina and a QB-less Michigan beating Alabama. This destroyed claims that 3-loss SEC teams should be treated differently because they play in the SEC.

Tennessee has been ripped as “not deserving” to be in the CFP because they were blown out. The fact is Tennessee was a darn good team. They just ran into a buzzsaw. We found the same to be true for the #1 ranked Oregon Ducks.

It’s not about the team that loses (regardless of the margin) as much as it is about the team that beats them. In this case, it’s about the Ohio State Buckeyes finally playing like the $20 million dollar team they are. Their 2024 wakeup call came right before the Volunteer game. That was a problem for the Volunteers, not a problem with the Volunteers.

If you’re assuming teams don’t belong in the CFP solely upon their conference affiliation, that’s a "you" problem.

Hail Mary #3 – Bad Losses Don’t Mean as Much as We Thought They Did

Georgia lost to a Notre Dame team that has rebounded fully from being upset by the Northern Illinois Huskies. That horrible loss has been shown to be unimportant in terms of CFP performance. Many (including myself) called the Northern Illinois loss the worst in the CFP field. Most likely we were right. It’s also been proven that this result meant nothing - outside of it being meaningless trivia.

Keeping a prospective CFP team out of the playoff for one bad loss, especially if it is that team’s only loss seems to be a foolish concept - especially now that Notre Dame has beat the SEC champion. Having the worst loss in the CFP on the Irish’s resume made no difference in the playoffs.

Hail Mary #4 – QBs Do Mean a Lot

Florida State fans are still smarting from not making the CFP in 2023 due to the loss of their starting quarterback, Jordan Travis due to injury. Now, Georgia without starting quarterback Carson Beck due to injury, was beaten in a slow and methodical fashion by Notre Dame. Should prospective CFP teams not get into the expanded 12-team field if their starting quarterback is injured? Maybe or maybe not, but expectations for a CFP team led by a backup quarterback should not be very high.

Hail Mary #5 – CFP Predictions

Here are my predictions for the next two CFP matchups

• 1/9 – # 6 Penn State vs #7 Notre Dame (Capital One Orange Bowl)
• 1/10 - #5 Texas vs #8 Ohio State (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)

Penn State will slip past Notre Dame in a game that will be a classic defensive struggle to the very end.

Ohio State will beat Texas by surviving an early Longhorn onslaught and the Buckeyes will win going away by the end.