Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular

March 9, 2025

It was shocking to me that more attention wasn’t paid to the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) decision to stop distributing revenue equally to conference members. This decision is a troubling one for schools that aren’t considered “football powers” across the country, regardless of their conference affiliation.

In the light of this decision and what it could mean for schools like the University of Illinois, the next five years will be the most important in the history of Illini Athletics.

What the ACC Did to Send a Warning Shot Across College Athletics

The Atlantic Coast Conference has historically distributed revenue equally to its member schools. After battling with Florida State and Clemson about revenue shortfalls when comparing their ACC television payouts to teams in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and Big Ten Conference (B1G), the ACC has come up with a revenue distribution model that is no longer based upon equality or even upon television markets. This new model will be based on television ratings, which in my mind is a transformation to paying teams for their current brand strength. Brand strength doesn't necessarily mean on-the-field success. Look at Florida State, in the last 8 seasons, the Seminoles have had 5 losing seasons and 2 double-digit winning seasons. They have been a roller coaster, but they still attract eyeballs to television screens.

This decision to pay for viewers and brands changes everything - especially from teams who have been on the outside looking in for decades.

What Does the New ACC Revenue Distribution Model Look Like?

The ACC has decided to distribute 60% of revenue based on a rolling 5-year formula tied to viewership ratings. This means that the teams with the most viewers get the most revenue. Teams at the bottom will face an even higher hurdle to compete for championships in the conference because many haven't won enough recently and/or consistently enough over time to have a larger ratings impact.

The remaining 40% of television revenue will be split equally between conference members.

What Does This ACC Revenue Distribution Model Mean for Schools?

The teams with the largest viewerships will be paid more. What teams with the largest viewerships have in common is a long-standing history of winning, larger football war chests funding their winning (in terms of coaching salaries, number of support personnel, and player investments both in compensation and facilities), and massive fanbases that will energize ratings. To be frank, this model has a high probability of being a classic case of the rich getting richer. Even worse, the system of rewarding ratings also provides a road to building frustration amongst individual schools that will have a much harder time moving up in the pecking order.

To bring this back to IlliniGuys context, let’s look at the B1G television deal which runs through the 2029-30 school year. The B1G broadcast partners are FOX, CBS, and NBC along with Peacock and the Big Ten Network. The timeslots that generate the most viewers are on Saturdays, specifically, the FOX game at 11 am, the CBS game at 2:30 pm and the NBC game at 7 pm.

The challenging issue arises if the B1G were to adopt a similar formula as the ACC uses. The teams selected by the conference for these games on Fox, CBS, and NBC will almost certainly achieve higher viewership numbers than teams on the B1G Network or Peacock. With the conference desiring the highest ratings possible, there are financial incentives for the conference to select the established football brands for the best time slots most often. The schedule making process puts the conference in a bad place in conflict of interest terms, plants the seeds for frustration among conference members and unequal the distribution of revenue further perpetuates the rich get richer culture of college athletics.

If one wants to take the big brand model to the extreme, one could see lesser brands wanting to secure games with Ohio State and Michigan (for example) to move up their own tv rankings totals. Might lesser teams want these games so much that they offer to play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and USC on the road and give up a home game? Might an increase tv viewers and the upward movement in the conference tv rankings mean a bigger revenue stream and thus more money for a school's athletic budget? Might a team want to play multiple powers just to pump up their rankings and their share of the television/streaming revenues? There are motivational questions that bump into the gray area much more often for both individual schools and the conference overall. The quest for more revenue certainly blurs motivations much more than the more black and white quest for more wins.

I’m not saying this would happen, but I am saying that there are a lot of scheduling and broadcast selection intentions and results questions that spring from a tv viewer-based revenue payment system. The Law of Unintended Consequences can be a bear, because you rarely see all the various consequences coming until it’s too late.

What Lesson Should be Taken Away from the ACC Plan?

The lesson learned depends upon a school’s current point-of-view (POV).

• For Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and USC, the lesson would be that they can leverage their history of success, long-term commitment of spending more to win, and large fanbases to get higher payouts than other teams in the conference. Due to audience sizes, these teams will be the preferred option for the best television times. Their strategy would be to maximize the number of times they were on the Fox, CBS and NBC networks.
• For teams like Illinois, the lesson is clear. The clock is ticking. The Illini must win - and win as often as possible in 2025, 26, 27, 28 & 29 football seasons. The Illini have a large alumni base, but consistent on-the-field success has eluded the program. They must maximize their ratings by adding winning seasons to attract a larger number of viewers on a weekly basis. Otherwise, Friday night games and BTN Saturday broadcasts competing against bigger brands on over-the-air network broadcasts might be their new “home” and cap their ability to move up the conference ladder.

No one knows if the B1G (or SEC) will move towards the model that the ACC has embraced. The only way to “plan” for that happening is to win and increase the leverage the Illini will have at the bargaining table as the B1G works to sign a series of new broadcast relationships for 2030 and beyond.

How High are the Stakes?

Make no mistake. Illinois must win as often as possible through the 2029 football season. It won’t be easy, and it doesn’t take long to compile a list of challenges:

• dealing with programs with deeper pockets and longer histories of winning
• the Wild West NIL environment, rapid pace of change, and unclear vision of the Congressional settlement ramifications
• the challenges of winning pay-for-play transfer portal battles and the increasing need for more fundraising to pay and recruit players
• finding a way to move up the pecking order in the B1G – knowing other teams are looking to move up or not fall in the pecking order

Do or do not. There is no try. Yoda said it best. There is no option for failing. The Illini must put together the best run in Illini football history. They must be able to either succeed in a situation like the current environment - or be ready for a battlefield that very well might be even more uneven than today’s is. Failure is not an option.

Unequal revenue distribution and unequal talent attraction (i.e. the draft one sees in the NFL and NBA, coupled with a hard salary cap) will result in a bigger gap between the have and have nots across conferences in the country. The new broadcast contracts in 2030 may be the final step before college football evolves into a true super conference with only 18 to 24 teams becoming a "mini-NFL".

What is Needed for Winning that the Illini Have Currently?

The Illini have two key necessities to win in today’s college football environment.

• AD Josh Whitman – The Illini AD has the vision to understand the pathway the Illini need to travel to be successful on the field in B1G football and he can influence decision makers at the highest levels of collegiate sports. Whitman has hired the triumvirate of Underwood, Bielema and Green and has successfully filled the three biggest revenue sports with coaches that are able to win at a high level. He has moved the Illini much closer to his vision for success and has the Illini at a point of trying to sustain success as opposed to trying to see if they can just be successful.
• Illinois Football Head Coach Bret Bielema – Bielema has been able to turn the moribund Illini football program into a respected team in the B1G. He has used limited NIL funds to attract key players from the Transfer Portal and influence valued Illini players to stay in Champaign-Urbana versus entering the Transfer Portal or entering the NFL Draft. Bielema now takes on a task that has never bene done in the history of Illinois football, having two double digit winning seasons back-to-back. The stakes are huge for a coach who is known for his ability to identify talent and win big without a massive number of 5-star recruits on the roster. Bielema is a good match for the Illini and has done his job so well that he may even be an attractive target for other schools looking to improve their program’s status in the next few years.

What Else Do the Illini Need?

The Illini need to have a robust NIL program. Each year, the Illini have been able to increase the resources used by the big three revenue sports. This must not change, but the annual increases in fundraising need to increase even faster. This is not an attack on the current status quo, but when you look at multiple teams reportedly spending around $20 million dollars on their football team roster, the cost of winning is indeed high.

If there are any potential big-ticket donors who are on the fence or even considering supporting the Illini, these individuals must be converted from potential donors to new/existing donors. The Illini must have a plan to generate NIL funds from the top of the economic food chain and a real grass roots effort for everyday fans to contribute to as well.

Bielema needs his NIL funds to elevate to support the further elevation of Illini football. Underwood needs additional NIL funds as schools like BYU are taking basketball NIL funding to near ridiculous levels. Green needs the funds to fuel her elevated recruiting results. And the school needs to figure out Women's Volleyball as that sport is a proven moneymaker for an athletic department.

One thing that is out of Whitman, Bielema, Underwood, and Green's control is who is hired to replace Robert Jones as Chancellor of the University of Illinois. It would be great to hire an individual who understands that successful athletics are the perfect way to create an image that benefits the university when students are considering which school to attend. Ask Alabama what football has meant to both number of admissions and quality of the students admitted to their university. Winning matters in more than just athletic revenue and civic pride.

Conclusions

The next five years are the most important years that Illini football has ever witnessed. To fall back or fall behind now is dangerous. The “red alert” nature of the new ACC revenue distribution model cannot be ignored. Gaining leverage for television negotiations is critical. Having as many years of ratings success as possible is a necessity. Illinois has had ratings success in years they have excelled. Imagine the ratings success the Illini could have with sustained success. The Illini need to continue to create leverage and build on the 2024 season. This is Bret Bielema’s task. He appears to be the right man for the job. Football is the big dog in college athletics, and it is no different at Illinois, Michigan or Ohio State. If the football team is doing well, so is the athletic department.

Certainly, schools that have had extended decades of improved football success like Iowa and Wisconsin are doing their best to avoid stumbling. They may not have reached the “blueblood” level of Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State, but these schools don’t want to return to levels of performance they experienced in the 70s. Illinois is looking to pass these schools up to shake up the B1G pecking order. Any upward movement by the Illini will meet fierce resistance. Program and athletic department resources are critical. As in war, supply lines must be consistent and dependable.

The stakes have never been higher. Will the B1G succumb to pattern their next broadcast revenue distributions in the image of the ACC’s new model? No one knows for sure, but the Illini must be prepared for such an eventuality. The only way to do that is to win big in football.

The time is now.