Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

October 28, 2024

The Oregon Ducks demonstrated a hypothesis that many believed in prior to the season starting. The gap between a #1 team and the #20 team can be an amazingly large chasm. To heck with a chasm, let’s say the gap was Grand Canyon-like. The ability to recruit at a high level for years – and then augment those recruiting efforts with a surgical strike approach to the transfer portal – creates a very formidable team. Oregon is a very formidable team.

Hail Mary #1 – Could Oregon be an Illini Turning Point

Depending upon the source you believe, the Oregon Ducks have an annual NIL investment of between $10 and $23 million dollars annually in their football program. Under today’s rules, with little to no transparency, it’s hard to know exactly what any team in investing in their success in the form of NIL funding. But one can look at any team’s roster to see how many 5-star and 4-star players have chosen to play there and how many key transfer portal players have come to fill in gaps in the roster. These numbers can be used to directionally estimate NIL investments.

The more highly ranked the player, the more money they would’ve cost in today’s open market system. Sure, there will be exceptions – some players come from families that don’t need the money or grow up as fans of a team. Even then, most players will expect some sort of compensation. I can’t fault them for that.

Illinois reportedly has an annual NIL investment from $3 to $5 million for the football team. In any world, $10 to $23 million is way greater than $3 to $5 million. With greater funds come more resources (players) and even the flexibility to overcome a few bad player assessments.

The Illini were overmatched from a roster standpoint. They needed their difference makers to have amazing games. Maybe this was an unrealistic expectation, but that is what had to happen. It did not. The Illini lost to a better team. A team that has had a high level of support for decades and has used that support to raise the stature of the football program. Could Oregon be the inspiration for future Illini success.

There was something very positive that happened at Oregon on Saturday for the Illini football program. A large group of boosters traveled to Oregon to see the game. Some would assume witnessing the 38-9 loss is a huge negative. I submit it was not. I submit this viewing was a huge positive.

Note: I did NOT say it was fun.

These committed Illini boosters saw how far the Illini program has travelled in the last 4 years. No longer is Illini football a joke across the country. At that exact same moment in time, those same boosters also saw how far away the Illini are from being a football power. No doubt it’s a long journey to the top – but one must acknowledge the Illini football program has made incredible progress over the last few years. Efforts must be ratcheted up to continue the journey to the top. That means NIL funds must be increased, not maintained and certainly not reduced.

One more event happened on Saturday and it’s even more important. The boosters got to see just how much darn fun the Oregon fanbase has on a Saturday afternoon. This type of investment made by Oregon boosters doesn’t pay off on a spreadsheet (at least if your name is not Phil Knight). The money invested pays off in the form of the enjoyment generated by experiencing your team kick butt on the gridiron and handily squash a top 20 team on a Saturday afternoon. It pays off in the anticipation felt on the journey to the College Football Playoff. It pays off in the form of the pride in your team leading the country in the race to the national championship.

Illini boosters got a vision of what could be. Now can they add to their numbers to make the vision a reality. Can that castle gleaming on a hill be turned into Camelot? That’s the challenge. It was great to see what could be, up close and personal. Illini boosters were able to see what greatness is possible – and just 30 years ago the Ducks were on the outside looking in as well.

Even if the Illini lost the game on Saturday, they may have gained so much more with that loss.

Heat Check #2 – Reaction to Illini Exhibition Loss to Ole Miss

The Illini Men’s Basketball team went to Ole Miss and ran into an older team with a coach that forces his team to play with an intensity unmatched in college basketball. It was the perfect recipe for a young Illini team needing to understand how tough a B1G road game can be – long before they play a B1G road game.

The team demonstrated too much one-on-one play, unforced turnovers, allowed a higher shooting percentage for Ole Miss that one would want to see, and missed too many free throws. The good news is all these mistakes are correctable. The bonus is that after the rough first half, the Illini players should be willing listeners to the coaching staff. If they weren’t already, they are now!

There were plenty of positives. Here are a few things I noticed:

• Tomislav Ivišić looked good getting 23 minutes 12 points with 6 rebounds.
• Morez Johnson also looked confident with 13 minutes 7 points and 6 rebounds.
• Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn was able to score with a team leading 15 points in 22 minutes.
• Tre White had 9 points in 18 minutes along with 6 boards.
• Kasparas Jakucionis get 12 points on a cold shooting day. He totaled 6 boards and had to adjust to the defensive pressure of Ole Miss. He had 4 turnovers. He played 27 minutes and is gaining the experience necessary to deal with B1G defenses.
• Will Riley proved he is willing to take the shot when it is needed (and sometimes when it’s not). He doesn’t appear to fear the moment.

Illini fans would’ve been happy with an easy victory. I’m not so certain that the staff didn’t see this game as a valuable learning experience. Thanks to the intensity of the Ole Miss team, the Illini have a real opportunity to attack areas of development that were highlighted in this game.

Hail Mary #3 – B1G Team Tiers – Picture is Coming into Focus

After week 9, tiers 1 & 2 have stabilized – but with Ohio State and Penn State battling, we’re almost guaranteed to see that change. Tiers 3 – 6 remain in flux and with the matchups this week, we’ll see a dramatic reshuffling next week.

• Tier 1 – Oregon, Ohio State – Oregon is still #1 after trouncing Illinois. Ohio State had to gut it out to defeat a game but overmatched Nebraska. It’s a judgment call, but I see the Buckeyes as a more complete team than Penn State. This isn’t a knock against Penn State, but Ohio State appears to be the better team. As a note, if history is a guide, go out and bet on Penn State on Saturday against the Buckeyes.
• Tier 2 – Penn State and Indiana – Indiana was able to beat Washington with a backup quarterback. Impressive feat as they moved to 8-0. Penn State dominated the Badgers in the 2^nd half and now have their shot to beat the Buckeyes. Not an easy task, but one that could cement them in the CFP.
• Tier 3 – Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, USC – The Illini and Wisconsin lost, but I refuse to drop teams for losing to Top 10 opponents (as a guideline – nothing is really a rule for me). Iowa and Wisconsin will play this week as well as Minnesota and Illinois. USC battles former Pac 12 rival Washington. Should be a fantastic weekend.
• Tier 4 – Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State – Michigan beat Michigan State and now hosts Oregon. It’s make or break time for the Wolverine season. Nebraska should feast on UCLA after narrowly losing to Ohio State on the road. Washington and USC battle. Michigan State has to face off against Indiana. Even more additional fun matchups here in the realigned B1G.
• Tier 5 – Rutgers, Maryland – Both teams lost and didn’t look good. Rutgers on the road at USC and Maryland on the road at Minnesota. They are off this week. I don’t know if this is better for their fans or the teams themselves.
• Tier 6 – Purdue, Northwestern and UCLA – Purdue is in last place, joined by Northwestern who was crushed by a struggling Iowa and UCLA was off.

The B1G still has three of the top 5 teams in the country. With the matchups happening this week, we’ll see some changes in the tiers and national rankings.

Should be yet another great week of football.