Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

October 13, 2024

Illinois started to blow out hapless Purdue, even being up 27-3 at one point. Purdue rallied to take the lead scoring 40 points in the 2^nd half, forcing the Illini to scramble to tie the game. The Illini prevailed as Purdue fails on their 2-point conversion attempt to win the game in overtime thanks to a huge sack by the Illini defense. The Illini are 5-1 and emotions run wild in the Illinois fanbase.

Hail Mary #1 – Fire Aaron Henry? Really?

Some fans want to fire Aaron Henry. This seems crazy. This situation requires a bit of context. Fans were frustrated with Bret Bielema selecting a new defensive coordinator with no previous coordination experience to replace Ryan Walters leaving to be Purdue’s head coach. This emotion became more pronounced when the Illini dropped from 8-5 in 2022 to a disappointing 5-7 in 2023 with the defense slipping precipitously in Henry’s first year.

Purdue has struggled mightily on offense and their only win was against FBS Indiana State. Despite the Boilermakers starting their backup quarterback, they scored 40 points in the second half of the Illini’s OT victory Saturday and the frustration with Aaron Henry’s defense is again bubbling up. This could be chalked up to “unfinished business” from last season’s bowl miss, but despite a 5-1 start, some fans are upset. Clearly, they blamed Henry for last season’s struggles. This small but vocal group wants Henry to be fired.

This is not something I’d recommend for a variety of reasons:

• The Illini are 5-1. This is the fourth time since 1990 the Illini have been better 5-1 or better after 6 games. It happened in 2001, 2022, 2024 (5-1) and 2011 (6-0). Why would one willing introduce chaos to this season that is going well to this point?
• Aaron Henry is a recruiting machine. I’d hate to lose his presence in recruiting. The Illini are paper thin at defensive line and linebacker. Do we need to add defensive backs to the list.
• Everyone knew the defensive line and linebacking were going to be a problem and somehow Henry’s defense was able to beat two teams in the top 25 and keep the game close with a powerful Penn State team on the road. I’d say evaluate the whole season, not a team’s worst moment. In fact, I think his defense has outperformed its talent level.
• Aaron Henry has dealt with the death of a sister which is something that I would work with an employee to get through in the “real world” with the expectation that there would be some challenging days from a performance standpoint. In my experience in the corporate world as a leader, you stand by your people who have earned it. Looking at Henry’s resume with Bret Bielema, I’d say you work with him towards a successful season here in 2024 and then determine what direction to go because he's earned it. Equity not fairness.

Firing Aaron Henry is effectively a non-starter.

Hail Mary #2 – It Could Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Michigan is coming to town with a team that cannot pass the ball effectively but is more than capable and very willing to run the ball down their opponents’ throats. The Illini are still thin at the defensive line and linebacker positions and now they have some dings in the secondary. This game could be ugly.

Michigan’s new head coach Sherrone Moore is the same man who called 32 consecutive running plays against #9 Penn State last season when the Wolverines beat the Nittany Lions on the way to a national title run. The Wolverines will run the ball until the Illini stop it. No distractions or apologies from their head coach. To paraphrase the Terminator, “Listen, and understand. That running coach is out there. He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. He just runs the ball.”

The Illini may have to go “video game” and play eight men in a box and use man-to-man on the receivers to stop the Wolverine rushing game. IF the Illini must sell out to this extent to stop the run, then they do leave themselves vulnerable to the deep pass. For those who play video games, you play a goal line defense to stop the run, but you’ll give up three to five TDs through the air because man-to-man with absolutely no help is a dangerous tactic.

Next week’s game will allow Bret Bielema, the Godfather of Running the Ball, a chance to stop…himself. If anyone is expert on all the ways teams can try to stop a lethal rushing attack, it’s Bielema. In his tenure as a head coach, he’s seen more gimmicks to stop the run than just about any coach going right now. It’s time for him to dip into his rolodex of memories and find the run-stop gimmicks that annoyed him the most and employ them for the Wolverines.

And after the Wolverines, the Illini travel to Oregon to face the Ducks who just defeated Ohio State at Autzen stadium. I expect the Ducks to be coming off a huge win over Purdue. If the win is devasting enough, the Ducks may come into this game after ending Ryan Walters’ tenure at Purdue.

I only say this to warn Illini fans, it’s time to act like you’re in the SEC because B1G football just got tougher due to expansion. The Illini play two tough teams in a row and Illini fans need to wear their big boy pants. It could be two tough weekends in a row. Barring injury, the Illini team will still have 4 games to finish the season and they’ll probably be favored in all four.

In the B1G it’s never easy, but the Illini will face two tough teams in the next two weeks. B1G football is now like the SEC, it’s not for the faint of heart.

Hail Mary #3 – B1G Team Tiers – The Picture Comes into Focus

After week 7, the B1G is starting to differentiate teams, though tiers 2 thru 4 are very close to one another and as they play each other, it will shake out.

• Tier 1 – Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State – a fantastic game between the Bucks and Ducks with Oregon winning by a razor’s edge. I expect these teams to play 3 times. A 2^nd time in the Big Ten Championship and a 3^rd time in the College Football Playoff. The main team in the way is Penn State who has elevated their way into the tier.
• Tier 2 – Indiana and Illinois – both will be tested this week. Indiana gets Nebraska and Illinois gets Michigan. Both are home games, and both will tell us a bit about each team. Nebraska is the best team Indiana has played this year. Can the Illini defense stop the Michigan run?
• Tier 3 – Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska – Michigan is still a lethal team when they are on. When they aren’t, they’re beatable. Iowa’s schedule is favorable and may end up 10-2. Wisconsin looks good with 2 big wins in a row. Nebraska has a “prove it” game against upstart Indiana. Who will prove their worth?
• Tier 4 – Minnesota, Rutgers, and USC – Minnesota is on a two-game roll (courtesy of USC and UCLA) but now must face Maryland who has their back against the wall. Rutgers offense is a dumpster fire, and they must get it back on track. Perfect time to play UCLA. USC has more talent than they’re showing. Better start showing it with 2 disappointing losses in a row.
• Tier 5 – Michigan State, Northwestern, and Washington – Michigan State in a bad place having to travel to Iowa then play 3 ranked teams in a row. Northwestern has a brutal schedule with 3 more ranked teams and playing a hot Wisconsin at home this week. Washington has a bye then gets to visit highly ranked Indiana.
• Tier 6 – UCLA, Purdue, and Maryland – UCLA on a 5-game skid and playing at Rutgers in an 11 am game. Rough. Purdue also on a 5-game losing streak and they play Oregon on Friday night. If that goes horribly, one wonders if Ryan Walters will still be the coach by next Sunday. Maryland is down here as they’re 0-3 in conference play and face an angry and talented USC team in the battle of underperformers.

The tiers will fluctuate as teams clash, but there are a ton of great matchups coming thanks to conference realignment. Oregon has performed as advertised and USC and Washington still have a chance to right the ship. UCLA looks like a lost cause.