Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

December 9, 2024

We got our College Football Playoff (CFP) bracket! The result looks to be a fantastic set of matchups, many of which are not regularly scheduled clashes.

It remains to be seen how many of the games will turn out to be as entertaining as they look on paper. Each of the first four games on weekend one is intriguing.

• Tennessee at Ohio State – if things go poorly for the Buckeyes, how negatively will the home crowd respond?
• Clemson at Texas – can Dabo complete an amazing turnaround from their season opener - a humiliating 34-3 loss at the hands of Georgia.
• Indiana at Notre Dame – a matchup no one expected and rarely seen on the field.
• SMU at Penn State – how will the Mustangs react to whiteout conditions?

Well done in year one!

Hail Mary #1 – CFP - Seeding

I would keep automatic bids for the conference champions as they are now. However, I would throw out the automatic byes. The bracket needs to be constructed #1-#12. The #1 team should not deal with an #8/#9 winner that features two teams that are as powerful as Ohio State and Tennessee. These two teams were pushed down in the bracket due to automatic byes. This isn't fair to the teams that have played superbly through the regular season and should get some benefit from earning the #1 seed.

Hail Mary #2 – The CFP – Strength of Schedule

Strength of schedule (SOS) doesn’t seem to be fully accounted for at the start of the ratings process. With larger conferences, no one plays all conference opponents to best assess each team. Some conferences are less powerful than others. How do you balance that? There are two schools of thought on schedule strength:

• The SEC has more highly ranked teams than any other conference, so SOS is a key measurement that needs to be weighed with some degree of certainty.
• Teams can’t control their schedule, so if they win with a weaker schedule, they should crush their competition to be ranked highly.

Both points are true.

Due to larger conferences, there are no silver bullets that can prevent unbalanced schedules. However, mandating all large conferences play 10 conference games would do two things:

• It would minimize schedule disparity (as much as possible) as more teams will play their peers.
• It would provide even more high-interest content for the conferences to provide to their broadcast partners.

Let’s make that happen.

Hail Mary #3 – Quality Wins are Variable

In college football (and college basketball), quality wins are variable in nature.

For example, Illini fans were excited by beating #19 Kansas early in the season. That defeat started a five-game losing streak for the Jayhawks. The victory was looked at as fool’s gold by Illini detractors. After Kansas played four ranked teams in a row, losing the first by 2 points and winning the next three in a row, the Illini victory looked much better despite Kansas finishing with a 5-7 record.

Wait until the end of the season to judge wins and losses.

Heat Check #1 – Coach Collins Quote Made Me Smile

After the Wildcats beat the Illini in overtime Friday night, Northwestern head coach Chris Collins uttered a quote that I thought was thought provoking from two angles. The quote was:

“You guys know that my upbringing is NBA. My dad was an NBA coach. In the NBA, they play matchups. A lot of times in college, it’s systems. We just found a matchup and so we just kept running the same play and they kept guarding it the same way and he just kept scoring. It was just a matchup we liked where we got our leading scorer in a good spot, and they weren’t doubling him or helping on him. Nick did what a good player does, he scored.”

On one hand, I felt like pointing out to Coach Collins that you played a young and inexperienced Illini team in their first B1G game (and road game), were allowed to play that game at a pace and physicality that made them uncomfortable, and your offense only scored 56 points in regulation. You’re not some sort of offensive guru due to your genetics. But to the victors go the spoils and he won the game, so he can pontificate, whether it makes a lot of sense or not.

On the other hand, I felt like asking Coach Underwood how many times in a row will you allow a team to run the same play without changing coverages or substituting players?

I am obviously the odd duck here, but this is how I look at things.

Heat Check #2 – Play Morez Johnson More Minutes

Morez Johnson has been a defensive and rebounding force during his limited minutes early in the Illini basketball season. I would not hesitate to put him on the court more often. There are a couple of ways I’d use Morez.

• Give Morez around 15 minutes at the backup center spot. Ivisic gets tired as the game wears on. Giving Ivisic rest will ensure that he is fresh throughout the game and not playing tired and possibly risking injury while fatigued and this gives Morez 15 minutes at the center spot.
• Also rotate Morez with Ben Humrichous at the 4 when other teams are going big, or rebounding has been an issue. (One note – I’d also look at Tre White as a four as well depending upon opponent and game situations).

Bottom line is if Humrichous isn’t shooting well, there are other guys who can come in and make a difference on defense and on the boards, even if they can’t match Big Ben from the arc on a game-by-game basis.

Hail Mary #4 – Has Drew Allar Arrived?

Drew Allar has been saddled with huge expectations since he arrived at Penn State. In the B1G Championship Game against Oregon, the #1 team in the country, he played a very strong game against a team that features team speed that even Ohio State can’t match.

Allar was 20-39 for 226 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs and 54 yards rushing and a TD on the ground.

Allar couldn’t match the play of Dillon Gabriel, but few have been able to do so. Allar was able to keep his team in the game and kept them focused when down 28-10 in the second quarter. That game could’ve turned into another Oregon delivered blowout. Drew Allar was instrumental in making sure that didn’t happen.

Hail Mary #5 – B1G Team Tiers – The Regular Season Rankings

Nothing changed last week’s column had the final standings. It would’ve taken a Penn State win to flip the order and while the game was close, that did not happen.

Audio Podcast

https://illiniguys.com/college-football-playoffs-coach-collins-quote-play-morez-johnson-more-has-drew-allar-arrived-sturdy-stops-in-to-talk-illini-bb-fb-with-cfp/

Video Podcast

https://illiniguys.com/college-football-playoffs-coach-collins-quote-play-morez-johnson-more-has-drew-allar-arrived-sturdy-stops-in-to-talk-illini-bb-fb-with-cfp-youtube-edition/