Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

Luke Altmyer photograph courtesy of Joe Clark, IlliniGuys

December 16, 2024

What a week as we got a chance to take a breather on college football and had a fantastic Saturday watching matchups across college basketball.

This week our attention turns to the four huge CFP games starting on Friday night and moving to three more next Saturday. What a great couple of days!

The fun kicks off at 7 pm on Friday at Notre Dame as they face in-state rival Indiana.

Hail Mary #1 – CFP – Game Predictions

Let’s start out with the upstart #10 Indiana Hoosiers facing the #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti should be the National Coach of the Year and the B1G Coach of the Year, and his Hoosier team is the best story going in college football today. But Notre Dame has played very well since its humiliating defeat at the hands of the Northern Illinois Huskies. Indiana is a tough team, but Indiana’s Cinderella story will end on Friday night at the hands of the Fighting Irish. The Irish will then go to the Allstate Sugar Bowl and face Georgia on New Year’s Day at 7:45 pm.

Next up on Saturday morning at 11 am is the matchup where the Dallas-based #11 SMU Mustangs embark to face #6 Penn State at Beaver Stadium with expected temperatures in the high 20s. Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs will be hard pressed to deal with the Nittany Lions. I am expecting Penn State to meet Boise State on December 31^st in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.

At 3 pm, #12 Clemson visits #5 Texas in a matchup that is fully dependent upon which Clemson and Texas teams show up. Will we see the Clemson team that Georgia wiped out on opening weekend 34-3, or will we see the Clemson team that rallied to beat SM 34-31? For that matter, will we see the Texas team that lost its first game to Georgia 30-15 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated, or will we see the Texas team that beat Texas A&M on the road 17-7? I’m picking Texas but a Dabo-led team in a game like this gives me pause. If there’s an upset to be had, it’s Clemson. Assuming they win, the Longhorns are off to meet Arizona State on New Year's Day at 12 pm in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

This marvelous 24-hours of football wraps up at 7 pm with what I think is the best game of the round - #9 Tennessee at #8 Ohio State. These two teams (along with Georgia and Oregon) have played at a higher level than anyone else this season – when they are on. Ryan Day, Ohio State’s embattled head coach, needs to win this game. Ohio State fans are not in a happy mood after the Michigan loss. Maybe this game would’ve been better played at Tennessee for the Buckeyes players if things go sideways on Saturday night. In any event, I think the Volunteers are going to pull off the upset and gain the right to battle Oregon in the Rose Bowl at 4 pm on New Year’s Day.

I can’t wait. It’s going to be pizza, chili and pasta until no more can be consumed.

This is America at its greatest! At least until the next round!

Hail Mary #2 – Heisman Trophy Thoughts

The Heisman Trophy was awarded to Travis Hunter the WR and CB two-way player from Colorado. Boise State’s RB Ashton Jeanty was the runner up. Both players were deserving and most years Jeanty’s performance (4^th most rushing yards in FBS history with at least 1 more game to go and only 131 yards behind Barry Sanders 1988 single season record) would’ve gained him the award. Unfortunately for Jeanty, this year featured one player who was one of the top players in the country at 2 positions.

Hunter was the first B1G player to ever be first team all-conference on both sides of the ball in the same season, the first defensive back to win since Charles Woodson in 1997 and the first wide receiver to win since Devonta Smith in 2020. He played 1356 plays, more than 434 more plays than other FBS player.

Hunter was the dominant defensive back and a standout wide receiver. His ability to affect the game from either side of the ball was the reason he won. Jeanty was amazing and had this been any other year, he’d have won the Heisman.

Hail Mary #3 – Bill Belichick to UNC

Bill Belichick must’ve gotten tired of being told “no” from NFL owners through their young GMs and football executives, many of whom weren’t even born when Bill Belichick started as a special assistant for the Baltimore Colts in 1975. How hard must it be for the greatest head coach of all time to find out he didn’t even make the Top 3 for positions like the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons?

He has now ended up at North Carolina and is a hire that seems to be inspired by Deion Sanders at Colorado, a hire that is unconventional, high risk, but with the chance of high rewards if it works.

Belichick doesn’t seem to have the personality to beg for NIL dollars with boosters, or glad hand boosters after a big win (and certainly not after a big loss). He’s older. He’s never coached in college. He’s a guy that few imagined would end up as a collegiate football coach. Yet, strangely to me this makes sense.

Bill Belichick can sell the fact that he knows what it takes to make it to the NFL. He can sell that he has contacts throughout the NFL that could be very helpful to an accomplished player. A Belichickian type of “come to me if you want to play in the NFL” approach could work. It’s unconventional. It’s untested. It’s a risk. Conversely, in the ACC with no team dominating the league, it could be the best way for Belichick to make an impact on college football right away.

Heat Check #1 – Illini Lose to #1 Tennessee 66-64 At Home – Team’s Developmental Journey

After the Volunteers beat the Illini Saturday afternoon, I had several thoughts:

We at IlliniGuys/Big Sports Radio have repeatedly said this is an Illini team that has great potential – if the team is successful at coming together as 10 players have never played with one another before and if they keep developing as players because only one current Illini has only played in a B1G game.

We’ve also stated that if the coaches and players don’t come together as a team or if the players aren’t developing, this team might have a lower floor than some of the past few Brad Underwood-led Illini teams.

The key is the path of development that the players take both individually improving their skill sets and coming together as a coherent team. By that I mean understanding where each other will be on the court offensively and how to help one another defensively.

To guide the team in this developmental quest will be a coaching staff that won’t have the margin for error that was provided by Ayo, Kofi or TSJ. While Underwood has “manned up” and taken some of the blame for the Northwestern and Tennessee loss, the team must keep improving – and in addition - so does the coaching staff.

In essence, we might be seeing a real time test of just how many new team members can be successfully “assimilated” (to use Borg vernacular) to evolve into a viable B1G and NCAA tournament team. Coach Underwood might need to reach back into his JUCO coaching experiences to move this team along a developmental path that leads to post season success.

If the team does well in the tournament, then higher amounts of player turnover may be acceptable on a year-to-year basis. If not, then recruiting and maintaining players may become more of an emphasis.

Time will tell.

Heat Check #2 – Importance of Productivity & the Value of Possessions

There are plenty of reasons that players are kept on the court. Clearly the easiest way to stay on the court is to score points for the team. It’s hard for a coach to take a player who is scoring out of the game – outside of foul trouble. The reality is that there are many opportunities for players to contribute – even when their scoring punch is at powderpuff levels. The importance of statistics – particularly within the definition of creating additional possessions for the Illini or limiting possessions for the opposition are critical.

Let’s talk about rebounding first. If a player is on the floor, there needs to be an emphasis on the rebounding aspect of game – not just to “stat stuff” but to allow the Illini more chances at scoring (which will be needed if the offense doesn’t improve) and to limit opponent chances to score (because the defense can only stop an opponent for so long) as less possessions allows for less chances to score.

The same is true of turnovers. Defenders are going to try to steal the ball – and they will be successful. The key issue is to not be careless with the ball – particularly nonchalant passes – that are “gimmes” to a defender. KJ is learning how to play against defenders who are quicker than him and are allowed to get into his body. He must maintain control of the ball under these circumstances.

KJ’s play has been inspiring on the offensive end, but if he were to cut his turnovers from 7 down to 2 or 3, that would result in 4 or 5 more possessions where the Illini might get up a shot. If the Illini were in the middle of a horrible shooting game (like Saturday’s), that might result in one more basket that allows the game to go into overtime.

If you add in additional rebounding and maybe the Illini score on two of those additional possessions and they win the game against Tennessee. In basketball, the devil is in the details and that is where the Illini can improve and elevate this into a very high ceiling team. It will take a lot of time and effort for both the players and the staff to make that happen. The huge positive is that the Illini future is in their own control. The attitude must be to grab hold and make the most of the opportunity given.

Hail Mary #4 – Luke Altmyer Returns to the Illini in 2025

The Illini apparently have been very good this year.

They opened a magnificent Christmas present early in the form of QB Luke Altmyer announcing he will be returning for the 2025 season. When one looks at the massive improvement he made between last season and this season, the 2025 season looks very hopeful with the return of the man who quarterbacked the 2024 Illini to a 9-3 regular season record, the best since 2007.

As Altmyer improves, he elevates a team around him. The Illini were one of only three teams in the B1G to have as few as 5 interceptions during the season. Altmyer led an offense that played complimentary football and supported his defense in a successful B1G season.

The Illini outperformed expectations in large part due to the ability to win one score games and perform well under pressure. The Illini were 4-1 in games decided by one score with only the Minnesota game being a loss.

Further development of Altmyer should help improve the offense as the Illini go to portal to bolster the offensive line and see if there are any wide receivers that might be interested in playing in Barry Lunney’s offense with Altmyer as the trigger man. With 2543 yards passing, 21 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions, Illinois might be a landing spot that many WRs will find interesting. The play of Pat Bryant and Zachari Franklin might also influence receivers into giving the Illini a look that might not have been given in past seasons.

The biggest challenge for teams is to recruit, select and maintain a good quarterback to build a program around. With Luke Altmyer at the helm, the Illini don’t have to spend time on filling the QB spot, can develop younger quarterbacks to take over, and spend their time and resources on other positions such as the defensive and offensive lines, linebacker and wide receiver positions.

With Altmyer maybe consecutive 9-win seasons will happen - for the first time in the modern era. Although to be fair, Illinois had 9-win, 10-win, 8-win and 9-win seasons in 1901-04 and the Illini had a 10-win and 8-win season in 1989-90.

Luke Altmyer's decision may help make Illini history!

YouTube Video

https://illiniguys.com/heat-checks-hail-marys-cfp-predictions-heisman-belichick-thoughts-illini-bb-development-luke-altmyer-returns-for-2025-youtube-edition/

Podcast

https://illiniguys.com/heat-checks-hail-marys-cfp-predictions-heisman-belichick-thoughts-illini-bb-development-luke-altmyer-returns-for-2025-2/