Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

October 24, 2024

The Fighting Illini scored a field goal on their opening drive and used two Michigan turnovers to score another ten points in the second quarter to open a 13-7 halftime lead. The Illini finished the scoring with a touchdown drive with a 2-point conversion keyed by Tanner Arkin’s 36-yard gain on a fake punt. The Illini won 21-7, defeating the Wolverines for the first time since 2009 and the first time that Michigan has been held under 10 points since a 31-0 shutout loss to Notre Dame in 2014, ending Michigan’s streak of scoring at least 10 points or more at 130 games.

Hail Mary #1 – Do You Believe in Bret Bielema?

When Josh Whitman, the Illini Athletic Director, hired Lovie Smith, I thought that hire was a calculated risk that was worth taking. If it panned out, the hire would be looked at as a genius move. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out. I still think it was a move work making.

When Josh Whitman hired Bret Bielema, I didn’t like the decision. In my mind, it felt like Bielema failed at Arkansas and ran an offense that wouldn’t offer the Illini a chance for success in today’s faster college football era. To me, Bielema’s hiring compared to the hiring of Gary Moeller who failed at Illinois trying to mimic Michigan’s three yards and a cloud of dust offense powered by massive and highly ranked offensive linemen.

When I met Bielema for a 1-on-1 interview, my opinion of him began to change. The reason: he acted more like a corporate executive in charge of a leadership team that was going partner with to radically change the environment for his team. The focus on treating players and their families like his family and the hiring of coaches to maximize the development of players was a game changer for me.

That’s all well and good, but on the field Bielema has proven to me that he can take plans and execute them effectively as illustrated by the following accomplishments:

• Illinois is off to a 6-1 start for the second time in Bret Bielema’s four seasons at Illinois (2022, 2024).
• The 6-1 start is tied for the best start by an Illinois team since starting 6-0-1 in 1953.
• Illinois is 6-1 or better for the fourth time since 2000 (2001, 2011, 2022, 2024).
• Illinois is 6-1 with three AP Top 25 wins for the first time since 1990.
• It is the fifth 6-1 start since 1990 (1990, 2001, 2011, 2022, 2024).
• The Illini won their first ranked-vs.-ranked game at Memorial Stadium since a 10-7 triumph over No. 11 Ohio State on Oct. 12, 1991.

Bret Bielema has raised the floor of the Illini football program. Instead of looking at seasons with 0 to 3 wins, the Illini under Bielema can count on 5-win seasons (2021 & 23) or higher. It must be noted that in 2021, the Illini lost 4 of their 7 games by 7-points or less. In 2023, 3 of the 7 Illini losses were by 4 points or less.

Half of the 6-1 starts since 2000 have come under Bret Bielema. The last time the Illini were 6-1 with three AP Top 25 wins was in 1990 and the last time the Illini won a ranked-vs-ranked game at Memorial Stadium was in 1991. Both events happened when Bret Bielema was in college playing defensive line for Hayden Fry and the Iowa Hawkeyes. The 6 Illini head coaches prior to Bielema were unable to accomplish these feats.

Bielema has proven that he has a plan, and he can execute it. Next up is to see if a Bielema-led Illini football team can finish strong in the new and expanded B1G conference. The 6-1 start ensures the Illini will play in a bowl. Now it is up to the team to see how high the Illini can reach. At 10-2, the Illini could contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP).

Let’s see how high Bret Bielema and the Illini football team can reach this 2024 football season. The path is not easy or automatic, but clearly Bielema is the man to lead the Illini football program.

Hail Mary #2 – Good Thing the Super League Looks Dead

We keep hearing of plans to have a “Super League” of 16 to 24 elite football teams that could break away from the rest of college football. Private equity firms would love to pull this off. At this moment in time, there are actually fans who believe their teams should be a part of this league due in part to the pride born of their teams’ success over the past decades.

But the reality of losing at a higher rate isn’t really a palatable alternative for these teams. Why do I say that?

Right now, in October of 2024, a sizable group of Alabama fans want to fire Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is 5-2 this season.

It’s not just the Roll Tide fans who feel that way. A segment of the Go Blue fans of the Michigan Wolverines have reached the end of their patience. They haven’t won a national championship since January of 2024. They want Sherrone Moore fired. Michigan is 4-3 and had 13 players drafted by the NFL.

Can you imagine how such “battle hardened fans” would deal with losing. In a 24-team league, someone must lose. What if it is their team? This question isn’t just for Michigan or Alabama fans, it goes for the fans of other “Blue Blood” football teams – such as Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, USC or Penn State. How would they handle losing seasons?

Ohio State has 4 losing seasons since 1951. Indiana has only had 14 winning seasons since 1951. Fans of Ohio State, Alabama or Georgia haven’t had to handle losing? They’ve never had to deal with losing before.

With a team of 24 teams, there are no “easy” games. Instead of playing 2 or 3 games a season where the outcome is in question, the teams would be playing in 10, 11 or 12 games a season that are in question. Losses would become a reality much more often than these fans have ever dealt with.

Vanderbilt has only had 11 winning seasons since 1951. How would “Blue Blood” fans deal with this type of futility? Maybe a team or two would be able to elevate their performance and stay there in a 24-team Super League. How would the Super League teams that fall by the wayside handle this newfound lack of success? I mean it only took Michigan fans a few months to call for Sherrone Moore’s head.

Fans of the Super League seem to be big business, television networks, and college administrators looking to cash a big check. Maybe fans of college football teams should learn to appreciate the day that the television money lands in their team’s bank account. Other than that, there may not be a lot to cheer for on the field – at least compared to the current system.

Even the 3 to 5 Power Conference alignment seems to be a much more palatable option for not just the “hangers on” of the big conferences – but for the Blue Bloods as well. Too bad many fans of the Blue Blood schools don’t seem to get it. But they do seem to panic when the losses pile up (even if they're only on loss 2 or 3 this season).

Hail Mary #3 – B1G Team Tiers – Throwing Darts at a Wall

After week 8, the B1G is starting to differentiate teams though tiers 1 & 2 have stabilized. Tiers 3 – 6 shuffled and are very fluid as teams play one another. This expanded/realigned B1G promises exciting matchups every week.

• Tier 1 – Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State – Oregon won a laugher at Purdue and is now the #1 team in the country thanks to Georgia upsetting Texas. Penn State and Ohio State were both idle. This is a week where 2 of the 3 teams will be tested. Oregon plays #20 Illinois at home; a reeling Nebraska visits Ohio State, and Penn State visits a red-hot Wisconsin team on a 3-game winning streak.
• Tier 2 – Indiana and Illinois – with Indiana’s star QB Kurtis Roarke out indefinitely with a thumb injury, I’m leaving Indiana in a tier with Illinois. Indiana destroyed Nebraska and Illinois beat Michigan. Indiana hosts Washington and the Illini have the unenviable task of visiting Oregon. The play of Indiana without their QB and how Illinois deals with the powerful Oregon machine will tell us a lot about each team.
• Tier 3 – Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa – Wisconsin has won 3 in a row and faces Penn State who is coming off a bye week, Michigan State visits rival Michigan, Minnesota takes on Maryland and I’m giving Iowa a temporary pass after a loss to Michigan State, but they now host Northwestern. If Iowa falls, that will be a huge loss. Wisconsin has the chance to vault themselves up the rankings again. Yes, I admit, I’m giving Iowa a pass. I feel their defense is strong and their easier schedule will carry them. But I was wrong about them not losing the rest of the way, so maybe they fall again.
• Tier 4 – Michigan, USC, Maryland, Nebraska, Washington – Michigan appears to have no QBs on the roster, USC is reeling after an unexpected loss to Maryland, Nebraska was blown out by Indiana. Washington had a bye week. Things don’t get easier. Michigan hosts Michigan State, USC hosts Rutgers, Maryland is at Minnesota, Nebraska visits Ohio State and Washington visits Indiana. We will see movement next week.
• Tier 5 – UCLA, Rutgers, Northwestern – UCLA squeaked by Rutgers last week and gets a week off (so much for my lost cause statement of last week). Rutgers gets a short week and visits USC on Friday. And Northwestern was squashed by Wisconsin now goes to Iowa. I’ve probably been harder on Rutgers than others, but their QB play has been really bad.
• Tier 6 – Purdue – Purdue is in last place, all alone. A week off and then a clash against Northwestern may provide them with an opportunity to climb out of this pit. But for now, it’s lonely at the bottom.

The B1G has three of the top 5 teams in the country. Will anyone get upset this week? To my eyes, Penn State has the biggest challenge going on the road to Madison and taking on the Badgers who are confident and playing well. You can’t count the Illini out even if it is an improbable upset.

Should be a great weekend of football.