Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular

November 3, 2025

The CFP race is getting crazier each weekend. This season will be no different than last year. Already there are several teams that have not met expectations – Penn State, LSU, Miami, Texas, South Carolina and even Illinois were thought to be contenders for the CFP. Penn State and LSU have seen their coaches fired as neither has come near to preseason expectations.

Hail Mary #1 – Playoff Eliminator Games are Coming to a Conference Near You!

As we close in on the playoffs, we’re seeing some degree of separation with teams at 0, 1 or 2 losses starting to face off against one another - at least occasionally. This is the biggest issue with larger conferences. We have too many permutations of 1 or 2 loss teams that can’t be accurately measured against one another due to the fact these teams aren’t scheduled against one another due to conference size. I wish there were more great matchups each week, but it is what it is.

Nonetheless, we will see a variety of good games, though not enough for footballoholics like myself. I’ve set up a chart to keep everyone aware of the important games:

With the Illini off this week, there are still a couple of B1G and SEC games to keep an eye on.

Oregon visits Iowa. We will see if an Iowa team who was able to hang until the very end of the game against the Indiana Hoosiers can compete with a very tough Oregon Ducks team. With a win, Iowa could lift themselves into the CFP discussion.

Meanwhile Oregon needs to elevate their performance towards the season end as they will play at Iowa and Washington and play USC at home. We will know a lot about Oregon by the end of the month of November.

Over in the SEC, we’ll see Texas A&M visit Missouri. Can Eli win a big game or two to ironically put him in a better position to either leverage Missouri for more money or leverage another school to pay him big dollars for his coaching services.

Hail Mary #2 – Coaching Firing Thoughts

I’ve never been one to appreciate a symbolic act that accomplishes little or nothing from a practical accomplishment standpoint.

Some of these firings seem to me to be nothing more than a way to "prove" to a fanbase that the administration wants their football program to be more. I’m not certain that firing a guy in the middle of the season does much more than virtue signals to boosters and fans that a new sheriff is going to be in charge. And it gets a bit hazier when no one knows which coach will end up being hired. The new guys is almost a coach to be named later.

There are a lot of competent coaches out there. It appears many ADs want to “win the press conference” by hiring a big-name coach. At the same time, with guys like Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule signing extensions – there may not be many high-charisma, big-name coaches left to hire and roll out as press conference champions.

If I were an AD, I’d be looking for a coach who has won everywhere he’s been. I’d also want a guy who develops players and coaches. Trying for flash and sizzle may ensure you’re executing another hiring process in 2 to 3 years because fan patience is at an all-time low. Now, more than ever, competency matters. There just aren’t many Cignettis out there to be hired, so get the best football coach you can.

As an AD, I think I’d save money on a buyout, keep a guy around a year and generate more NIL funds to influence players to come play for him. Maybe next year I will see more coaches to my liking. If I am not sure I can improve the coaching situation, I’m not paying a buyout to let a guy walk with my school's money for not working.

The introductory press conference for a new head coach is just the beginning – it’s not the end. Worry about the long-term success as opposed to a positive response on day one.

Hail Mary #3 – Aaron Henry

I think the cornerstone of Bret Bielema’s tenure has been the ability to do more with less. What do I mean by this?

The Illini aren’t at the top of the B1G in spending when it comes to football. This means they must identify talent that is underrated, sign those players and develop a few of them to compete with teams like Ohio State that have the checkbook to acquire and stockpile talent. And Bielema is producing results that are equal to the best Illini coaches of the past - even with this football budget deficit compared to many schools in the conference.

If Aaron Henry isn’t competent enough to do more with less – in both devising defensive strategy and recruiting, then Bret Bielema must replace him. If this is a situation where the talent isn’t good enough to do what we need them to do, I’m not sure if hiring another Defensive Coordinator is the answer.

This gets complicated because in real life, it’s usually a combination of factors that are the root cause of issues when goals aren’t met. Rarely is it 100% one thing that is causing issues. Quite frankly, I don't believe this is just an Aaron Henry issue.

At the same time, Bret Bielema didn’t get to where he is today by kicking the can down the road or ignoring issues. My suspicion is even if the Illini were to end up at 10-3 this season (not an automatic), Bielema wanted to make it to the CFP – which would’ve required at least a record of 10-2. Most likely there will be a gap in the expectations versus results when it comes to the results for this year's team.

Bielema must identify the gaps that need to be closed to win more games. If a large portion of that gap is generated by Aaron Henry, I’d imagine that he won’t be the defensive coordinator next season.

I’m not attending practice day-in and day-out, but I do know one thing from coaching. There are days that you can chart out the best plays/strategies in the world, but you do need the players who can go out and execute those strategies. If you don’t, there may be teams/players that oppose you who will make you pay for every player deficit that your roster exposes when certain players are on the field.

Coordinators must have the experience and creativity to counter what very talented coordinators across the field are doing. If your coordinator can’t do that, it’s probably time to move on.

If you need better players, that may mean the head coach has to hire a new coordinator and go out and beat the bushes for more donors to help improve the talent level. This is where I am from my perspective of an outsider looking in at a football program. There's never one easy fix to a problem and Bielema has to work on different issues to maximize the Illini's on field results.

It’s a tough time to be a head coach in college football or basketball. Wins are expected and the time to produce those wins is getting shorter and shorter.