A projected NCAA 2-seed just a month ago, Illinois is shooting itself into a double-digit seed in both the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments next month.​

By Larry Smith - Co-Host & Executive Producer, IlliniGuys Sports Spectacular

February 15, 2025

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. - There's an old saying that you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs.

However, there's always a cost and, right now, it's a fair question whether the Illinois basketball team has enough in its pockets to pay the tab.

One month ago, the Illini were flying high and had the nation paying attention, admiration that this program hasn't always enjoyed in mid-January; a proverbial Humpty Dumpty sitting atop a brick wall and looking down at most of college basketball.

They had just split a pair of games while star freshman Kasparas Jakucionis nursed an injured forearm, his return sparking a 25-point rout that was the worst Indiana has suffered in their building. They scored 90 points on that night, something they had done more often than not this season. Earlier in the month, they had set an NCAA Division I record by beating an Associated Press top ten-ranked team (Oregon) by 32 points at their place.

Then came a lull brought on by injury and illness, a six-game stretch in which they lost four times and fell out of the Top 25. The struggles were understandable and the promise of a healthy and unified team still evoked dreams of a deep tournament run in March. Back-to-back wins at Minnesota -another 90-point outing - and against UCLA suggested a program that was on the mend.

It appeared that Saturday night the Illini were ready for 11th ranked Michigan State, their rival who beat them 80-78 last month despite foul trouble limiting Jakucionis to a season-low nine minutes.

But it was a 10-minute stretch on this night that not only dealt a crushing loss to Illinois, but unveiled cracks deep and wide enough to give even the staunchest supporter pause:

--After averaging 10 points per game in 11 outings - including a pair of starts - before battling the flu, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn played a season-low three minutes. Two weeks ago, the sophomore guard's energy was touted as a key factor in a second half rally to beat Ohio State. Saturday night, he was credited with one minute of action after halftime.

--Tre White started the first 22 games this season, but after missing the Rutgers game with illness, he played just two minutes at Minnesota and inexplicably did not play against UCLA and Michigan State, even though he was cleared to do so.

--White's absence leaves in essence a double vacancy at the small forward position. Ty Rodgers, a starter on last season's NCAA Elite Eight team, opted to take a redshirt year just prior to the regular season opener but after playing limited minutes behind White in the lone exhibition game at Ole Miss.

--Illinois reached the bonus against the Spartans with more than 13 minutes to play, but failed to take advantage, shooting just seven free throws the rest of the way, only one in the final 10 minutes.

--In a stretch painfully reminiscent of the 30-0 drought against eventual NCAA champ UConn in last spring's NCAA Regional final, Illinois failed to score in the final 8:29 in the game, missing 19 consecutive shots, including 12 three-pointers to allow Michigan State to finish the game on a 15-0 run. European stars Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic, valiantly playing with a severely swollen ankle, combined for four points after halftime, shooting 0-for-10 from the field and 0-for-6 from three-point range.

--Illinois is the nation's number one rebounding team, but lost that battle Saturday night 41-37 to remain winless this season when they fail to outrebound their opponent.

--Illinois' defensive struggles are mounting as well. The Illini were 2-1 in November and December when allowing opponents to shoot 40% or better. Since then, they are just 4-6.

And then there is the love affair with the three-point shot, even when it's not falling. Late Saturday night, my IlliniGuys radio co-host Brad Sturdy talked with FOX Sports commentator Jim Jackson, who delivered a sobering observation after watching Illinois turn a 15-point lead into a 12-point loss:

"I guess Illinois is going to live and die by the three. They shoot the threes because they are allowed to by the coach and the defense", said the former Ohio State and NBA star.

That's true. Illini head coach Brad Underwood lamented his charges' shot selection in his postgame radio show, but has supported the notion of his shooters continuing to shoot, even if they aren't going in.

Illinois set a program record with 40 three-point attempts in the NCAA championship game loss to North Carolina in 2005. They've matched or exceeded that number three times this season. Three years ago, the Illini attempted a school record 24.9 three-pointers per game. This season, they're averaging more than 30 per game, for better or worse with a completion percentage that is dead-last in the Big Ten and among the worst in the nation.

Illinois had 19 games over the last four seasons combined in which they shot less than 30 percent from three-point range; this season, they've had 15 already. Consider this:

When hitting 28 percent of their three-point shots, Illinois is 13-1.

When failing to hit 28 percent of their three-point shots, Illinois is 4-8.

Illinois was just 7-of-33 from three-point range for 21 percent, the eighth time in their last 13 games that have failed to connect on a quarter of their shots.

Saturday's ills - the failure to stop Michigan State from scoring 42 second-half points, the 1-for-16 second half shooting from the arc, and the lack of effort in rebounding - could all come down to one word: fatigue.

While Tom Izzo, who became the Big Ten's all-time winningest coach on this night, played 11 Spartans and none of them more than 29 minutes, Illinois put just eight players into action, five of them playing 29 minutes or more.

Is Illinois better than what they showed Saturday night? Could they bounce back and pull off upsets at No. 14 Wisconsin Tuesday and against 3rd ranked Duke in New York City next Saturday night? Can they make a deep run into the NCAA tournament next month?

The answer to all of these is yes, but not like this. The Illini were projected by some to be a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament just a month ago and, before this loss, many experts believed they are the best team in the Big Ten.

But with four ranked conference teams all playing better basketball than the Illini right now and a high-scoring Iowa team left on the schedule, Illinois may be the underdog in each. That means they're in danger of falling to a double-digit seed in not just the Big Ten tournament, but in the NCAA as well.

And that would be a shame, because I truly believe this team is better than that and remains one of the most talented and most dangerous squads in the country...when they're in sync and playing together. There is no shame in losing to Michigan State; it's the way they lost that had friends, fans, and coaches texting all of us all night and into today.

The time of searching for answers is nearing an end. It's officially the back half of February. Selection Sunday is just four weeks away. It's time for coaches and players to look in the mirror and ask 'just what am I and are we doing here?' Deal with the here and now and leave the offseason stuff until then.

Coaches - you have nine players who have all been instrumental in getting you here. Play them! Players - you have an obligation to give it your all, no matter how much you are in the game. Do that!

I've checked and all the king's horses and all the king's men are busy. It's up to you to put this back together again. The price of eggs is higher than it's ever been; the cost of success isn't cheap either. What's in your wallet?