Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular

Cover photo courtesy of Joe Clark, IlliniGuys

March 16, 2025

Conference Tourney week was wild. We saw the highs and lows of college basketball teams. We watched their fans experiencing it real-time - tears and surrender cobras included. We saw why it’s so confounding to be a coach or attempt to predict what is going to happen next.

Heat Check #1 – Illini Peaks and Valleys

The Fighting Illini offense looked incredible on Thursday night. Despite the Illini defense looking anemic, the Illini offense scored over 100 points, and the Illini downed the Hawkeyes and ended Fran McCaffrey’s tenure as the Iowa Men’s Basketball Head Coach.

Illini fans had visions of another Big Ten tourney run. Optimism was tempered by the Illini facing a Maryland squad that has given Brad Underwood fits during his tenure.

Unfortunately, the Illini were smashed by Maryland dropping Underwood’s record against the Terrapins to 3-9 as the Illini’s head coach. The score was 88-65 and it was only that close because Maryland took the starters out.

Heat Check #2 – What Other Teams Are Also Unpredictable?

Illini fans are like fans of other teams, as they all tend to be myopic.

The Illini have a myriad of flaws to fix and question marks to answer - but so do other teams.

• The #3 Auburn Tigers (28-5) find themselves with a 1-3 record in their last 4 games after going 27-2 to start the season. How must their fans feel? More importantly, how has this affected the confidence of the Tiger team? Will a matchup with a #16 seed be the medicine the Tigers need to get them back on track? We’ll find out.
• The #15 Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) were on a 3-game winning streak only to get torched by Alabama 99-70 in SEC tourney action. Which Kentucky team will show up in the NCAA tourney, the Wildcat team that got blown out by Alabama or even Ohio State (85-65)? Or will it be the Wildcats who defeated Tennessee by 9? It’s anyone’s guess.
• The #5 Alabama Crimson Tide have lost 5 of their last 9 games. Yes, they defeated Kentucky handily but were tattooed by the Florida Gators 104-82 in a one-sided SEC tournament game the next day. How will this Alabama team compete in the NCAA tournament? Time will tell.
• Michigan can’t beat Illinois. The Wolverines are on a 9-game losing streak to Illinois. Maryland on the other hand acts like a school yard bully and takes the Illini's lunch money at every opportunity. Logically, one would expect the Terrapins to clean the Wolverine’s clock in the Big Ten tourney. Yet, Michigan slips past the Terrapins by a point, while outrebounding Maryland 47-18. No one saw that coming.

Every team has reasons that naysayers can point to as the faults that will cost the team being discussed in the NCAA tournament. Even Duke now has Cooper Flagg's ankle to muse on.

Heat Check #3 – What Are Realistic Expectations for the Illini in the NCAA Tournament

There are benefits of being an IlliniGuys.com subscriber. One of them is getting analysis on the message boards from Brad Sturdy, Ked Prince, Matt Stevens or Larry Smith, IlliniGuy, WNBA on Ion broadcaster and former CNN anchor. He wrote about measuring and evaluating the level the 2024-25 Illini basketball team has performed at. Below is what he had to say:

“This is a very VERY good basketball team, one of the top 25 in the nation.

But it's a team that can't beat the top 10 in the nation.

The regular season/conference season is done and we await the NCAA pairings. In the meantime, we now have a body of work to examine. Two ways to look at this:

Using Lunardi's most recent brackets (which includes Indiana), Illinois is:

• 2-8 vs. teams seeded 1-4 (win over Wisconsin in December and Purdue, both projected as 4-seeds)
• 7-0 vs. the rest of the field (including SIU-E)

Using today's NET rankings (Illinois came into the day at #15)

• Illinois vs. #1-14 -- 0-7 (allowing an average of 88 points per game and scoring 80+ once)
• Illinois vs. #15+ -- 9-1 (allowing an average of 76 points per game and scoring 80+ nine times)

There is still a chance Illinois lands a 6-seed - they have the resume. But tonight's effort can be a counter argument that the team is better than the unit that struggled through injuries, etc. and the committee could put them at a 7.

In my opinion, said argument is pointless. Their seed doesn't matter. Their body of work - the numbers posted above - suggests that it will take a major upset for the Illini to reach the Sweet 16, because they haven't beaten a top 3 seeded team all season nor a team ahead of them in the NET.

It's a very good team that hasn't shown this season that they can be elite and compete with the nation's best. Their most competitive games against the best (top 14 in NET) came earlier in the season. The last four (Maryland twice, vs. Michigan St., Duke) were lost by an average of 25 points."

Thus, the Illini – like most teams in the tournament must hope for good matchups and maybe a #1, #2 or #3 seed above them getting upset to help them make a run in the tournament.

We at the IlliniGuys (Brad, Ked and I) have said this team has a high ceiling and a low floor. We witnessed the high ceiling in victories over Oregon and Michigan. We saw the low floor during defeats to Duke and Maryland.

If you enjoy debates and discussions, the IlliniGuys message boards are a great way to engage with other Illini fans and the staff of the IlliniGuys. Larry's words above are an example of just a single post. Subscribe now for $99 a year (just 27 cents a day).

https://illiniguys.com/register/

Heat Check #4 - Cagley's Tempered Expectations

Historically speaking, the Illini are due for a run in the NCAA tournament as an underdog. But you can't bank on historically speaking.

This team hasn’t played at the level necessary to make a run without a bit of luck on their side. A Sweet 16 trip is probably the ceiling for this Illini team. As noted above, most likely a run would take a favorable matchup and possibly a higher seed being upset for this to happen.

Unless we see a pre-injury KJ. That would take some of the luck out of it - although reverting to form would be lucky, I suppose. Think if it, we haven’t seen Jakucionis at his best since he suffered the nebulous left forearm injury. If he were to return to the form he displayed earlier in the season, the Illini would be a much better team. Based on the data in front of us, it’s hard to expect that to happen.

Then again, it’s the NCAA basketball tournament. Anything can happen. They play the games for a reason. Maybe the Illini can shock the world, but I'd still fill out my brackets with caution and less of a sense of Illini optimism.