By Brad Sturdy - IlliniGuys Insider/Analyst

December 10, 2024

The Illini are back at the State Farm Center for the first time in two weeks in their Big Ten home opener against #20 Wisconsin. Following their loss to Northwestern, this is almost a must win game for Illinois as they host #1 Tennessee Saturday and have an improved Missouri team in St. Louis along with a game at Oregon in the next month.

Let’s look at the particulars.

Setting the Stage

Illinois (6-2, 0-1 B1G) vs. #20/22 Wisconsin (8-2, 0-1 B1G)
Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024 // 8 p.m. CT // Champaign, Ill. // State Farm Center
Stream: Peacock – Noah Eagle (Play-by-Play) & Robbie Hummel (Analyst)
Radio: Busey Bank Illini Sports Network – Brian Barnhart (Play-By-Play), Deon Thomas

Notable

-Illinois is 5-0 at home this season. Illinois is No. 12 in the NCAA NET rankings through games played Dec. 8. The Illini rank first in the Big Ten.

-Illinois’ matchup vs. #20 Wisconsin is the first of back-to-back games against ranked opponents this week. Illinois also hosts #1 Tennessee on Saturday (4:30 p.m. CT/FOX) at State Farm Center.

-The Illini rank third in the nation with a scoring margin of +23.8. Illinois’ 13-point win vs. #19 Arkansas was the largest by an unranked Illinois team over a top-25 foe under head coach Brad Underwood. Before the matchup with the Razorbacks, the Illini were coming off of the team’s two largest victory margins of the season – vs. UMES (+47, 87-40) and vs. Little Rock (+58, 92-34).

-Kasparas Jakucionis has scored 20+ points in three consecutive games, becoming the first Illini freshman to do so in program history. Jakucionis is the fifth freshman of the Brad Underwood Era to record at least three total 20-point games in his rookie season, joining Ayo Dosunmu (7 in 2018-19), Trent Frazier (5 in 2017-18), Giorgi Bezhanishvili (5 in 2018-19), and Kofi Cockburn (5 in 2019-20).

-Illinois leads the Big Ten and ranks among the top NCAA leaders in: 3-point attempts per game (4th in NCAA, 33.9), 3-pointers made per game (6th, 11.5), total rebounds per game (1st, 47.4), defensive rebounds per game (1st; 34.0), rebound margin (2nd, +13.4), offensive rebounds per game (51st, 13.4), 3-point percentage defense (4th; .251), field goal percentage defense (7th; .366), and blocks per game (20th, 5.4).The Illini also rank third nationally and second in the Big Ten in scoring margin (+23.8) trailing only Tennessee (+26.8) and Big Ten foe Maryland (+24.4)

-The Fighting Illini’s scoring average of 86.3 ppg ranks as the team’s highest since the 1988-89 Flyin’ Illini averaged 86.4 points per game.

-Through eight games this season, Illinois’ freshman trio of Kasparas Jakucionis, Morez Johnson Jr., and Will Riley have combined to average more than 34.9 points per game, the third-best mark in the nation among Power Conference teams, behind Rutgers and Duke. Throw in 1st year Ivisic and Illinois is 1st.

Meet the Badgers

-Wisconsin returns to Big Ten play looking to bounce back with a win at Illinois. UW seeks its first win over the Illini since 2019. They have lost 8 in a row to Illinois.

-With a win on Tuesday, the Badgers would snap a 7-game road losing streak. UW has lost 6 straight Big Ten road games

-Wisconsin is averaging 82.0 ppg this season, its highest scoring average since scoring a program record 86.3 pgg in 1970-71. The Badgers have not averaged 80+ ppg since the 1971- 72 season (80.0 ppg).

-Despite increased scoring and pace, the Badgers continue to take care of the basketball. UW is averaging 10 turnovers per game, which ranks 3rd-fewest in the Big Ten.

-Sophomore John Blackwell is averaging 15.2 ppg - 2nd for UW (15th in B1G). He ranks 19th in the B1G shooting 81.0% FT

-Max Klesmit has scored double figures in all 4 of his career meetings with Illinois, averaging 13.8 points shooting 52.8% FG (10-20 3FG).

-Transfer John Tonje has been fantastic, averaging 21 PPG on 52/41/93 shooting splits.

-Steven Crowl posted 11 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in the last meeting with the Illini. He had a 20-point, 12-rebound performance on the road at Illinois in 2023.

Keys to the Game

1. Make Some Shots - Wisconsin is allowing opponents to shoot just 29.4% from 3-point range this season. Only 2 of UW's last 8 opponents have hit 30% or better from deep. Illinois will get looks from 3, but teams tend to take bad shots against Wiscosin early in the shot clock or without getting it inside. 52% of Illinois shots come from 3, and Wisconsin allows opponents to take 40% of shots from deep.

1. Contain Tonje - Graduate John Tonje is not just one of the best transfers in the country, he's making his case as one of the best players in the nation. Averaging 21.5 points per game (13th in the NCAA), he racked up 41 points against then-ranked #9 Arizona. Tonje leads the NCAA shooting 93.1% FT. His 81 FTs and 87 FTs are also NCAA bests so you can’t foul him.

1. Find the Matchups - Thus far Brad Underwood has struggled to find the right combinations and matchups. Wisconsin struggled with the double big lineup employed by Michigan, will Illinois play Ivisic and Johnson together more? Amos is actually a good matchup for Humrichous, however, so do they stay with a more normal lineup? Do they put Boswell on Tonje?

Prediction

This is almost a must win for Illinois with their upcoming schedule and the difficulty recovering from an 0-2 Big Ten start. At home, they should get the win, 80-73 over a desperate Wisconsin team.