Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

September 22, 2024

Another excellent college football weekend is in the books! Let’s talk about a couple of things.

Hail Mary #1 – Judging the Result Versus the Process

The Illinois Fighting Illini defeated Nebraska 31-24 in OT on Friday night. With the victory, many were impressed with the Illini using the trademark Bielema rushing attack to beat down the Huskers for a victory in overtime. In the fourth quarter, the Illini rushed for 79 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt compared to the Cornhuskers rushed for 1 yard on 0.1 yard per rushing attempt.

The Illini rushing attack was the focus of the Nebraska defense and allowed Luke Altmyer to hit the wide-open Brandon Henderson for a 6-yard touchdown pass. In the overtime, the Illini used a bit of deception to connect with Pat Bryant in the flat for a 4-yard Altmyer pass for the winning touchdown, as Bryant lined up “disguised” as a fullback to free him up.

Rightfully so, Illini fans specifically and college football fans in general approved of the way Lunney Jr used a strong running game, good timing of unpredictable passing plays and the threat of a strong running game to the Illini advantage. With the victory comes the adulation and approval of football fans.

What would’ve happened if the Illini had come up short and lost to the Cornhuskers? Would fans think Bielema’s offensive coordinator was forced to run the ball too much? Might they point to the fourth quarter play calling of 15 rushing plays and only 4 passing plays as the reason the Illini did not win the game? Would there be concerns that Bielema’s approach is too conservative focusing on possession over points, not aggressive enough to generate the touchdowns necessary to win games and too archaic to win in today’s high octane offensive environment of college football?

Coaches are forced to walk a tightrope of keeping actual results at least equal to fan expectations. If expectations outweigh results by too much, the coach may find himself looking for another job. In today’s social media world, the results are then framed by the argument that if it works it doesn’t matter. If it doesn’t work, it needs to go.

It's worth noting that results goals are what you hope to achieve (a win) while process goals are processes you will need to repeatedly achieve your results goal (a win).

In this case, the belief is that this process of running the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and the clock along with scoring is the process that results in the highest chance of success (i.e. getting the result of winning the game). And to the excitement of Illini fans, the results were delivered on Friday night in Lincoln.

If a future win doesn’t happen (because we know no process is 100% perfect) and a disappointing loss occurs, Illini fans might want to think back to that Friday night in Lincoln before declaring the Illini need a new coach with a shiny new offense and a reputation for scoring points. That process may not work all the time, either. And it might even win less often…

Hail Mary #2 – The Excitement of a 4-0 Start

With two wins over Top 25 teams - #19 Kansas (who admittedly has fallen off after the Illini beat them) and #22 Nebraska and victories over the MAC’s Central Michigan & FBS school Eastern Illinois, the Illini have started the season 4-0 for the third time since 1951. Some may remember the 6-0 start of 2011 under Ron Zook.

It is exciting to see the Illini start off 4-0 even as they prepare to go to take on #10 Penn State on the road in Happy Valley. As a 57-year-old Illini fan, I have now had the opportunity to see 2 of the 3 seasons the Illini have started 4-0 since 1951.

Unfortunately, curiosity got the better of me. I decided to research to compare this accomplishment to the cream of the B1G football crop, Ohio State University.

Remember, the Illini have started a season 4-0 three times since 1951 – that was in 1951, 2011 and 2024.

As a comparison, Ohio State has started 4-0 to begin a season 33 times since 1951. In case you’re interested (and assuming no typos) they did that in 1954, 58, 64, 68, 69, 70, 72, 73, 74, 75, 79, 84, 91, 93, 95, 96, 97, 98, 2000, 02, 03, 06, 07, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 22, and 23. It merits noting next week Ohio State could make it 34 times with a victory over Michigan State.

If an Illini fan were to speculate after ascending to the top of the B1G, the Illini would need 30 years of accomplishing a 4-0 start and Ohio State would need to miss it for 30 straight years for the Illin to tie the Buckeyes. That won’t happen, but any program building in Champaign-Urbana needs to have both an eye on accomplishing results today and an eye on the long view as the program tries to build consistent excellence resembling what program like Ohio State has accomplished.

At this point, curiosity killed the cat (me). I decided to compare the two schools from a losing season standpoint. I used 1951 as the comparison point because the Illini started that season with a 4-game win streak. The results were not good. At all.

Since 1951, the Buckeyes have experienced four losing seasons – 1959, 1966, 1988, and 2011. The worst record was 3-5-1 in 1959. The only “conclusion” I made from this data was in a season finishing with double digits, there’s a higher chance than usual that Ohio State has a losing season. Thus, I’ve marked my calendar for a crazy year in 2033.

In comparison, the Illini have experienced 46 losing seasons since 1951. That’s a lot to type so here we go: 1952, 54, 56, 57, 58, 61, 62, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 86, 87, 93, 96, 97, 98, 2000, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 08, 09, 12. 13, 14, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, and 23. Illini fans experienced more losing seasons by 1958 than Ohio State fans have experienced in total since 1951.

To make it worse, the Buckeyes worst single season win total was 3 wins in 1959. As a comparison, the Illini have had 2 seasons with no wins, 1961 and 1997. The Illini have had 4 seasons with 1 win, 1954, 68, 78, and 03. And 9 seasons with 2 wins 1956, 62, 79, 96, 05, 06, 12, 17, and 20. So Illini fans have experienced 15 seasons worse than the “worst” season that the Buckeye fans had to deal with - 3 wins.

What is the point of all this? I’m not sure. But I have a few theories I’m working on.

1. It’s easy as hell to be an Ohio State fan. How many Buckeye fans would last even a decade as an Illini fan? Probably not very many. And one should remember the top 2 reasons you’re a fan of a college team is where you’re born and/or who your parents root for. So instead of feeling superior as an Ohio State fan, be thankful your parents lived in Ohio and/or loved the Buckeyes – as a fan, you had nothing to do with either decision.
2. There are other college football bluebloods like Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan, USC and others with strong results over the years. If a super conference ever forms and only the cream of the crop is invited, in each game a team must lose. Some teams must finish at or near the bottom of the standings. I’m not sold any of those fanbases could handle sustained hard times. Think of Jack Nicholson yelling, “You can’t handle the loss!” If it helps, feel free to try your own Jack Nicholson impression while reading that line.
3. In my lifetime, only Mike White and John Mackovic have been able to stop the losing that has been almost inevitable for Illini fans. I believe that Bret Bielema is the third coach to have the talent and discipline to do that. He’s elevated the floor of the Illini football program. I believe he’ll raise the ceiling as well.
4. Enjoy the 4-0 start because it's been fun so far and historically this doesn't happen every year for Illini fans! Maybe under Bret Bielema it will be a much more common occurrence.