Through two weeks into the 2024 season, Illinois is tied for the nation’s lead in turnovers gained and turnover margin following a three-interception performance in the win over Kansas.

Matt Stevens, IlliniGuys Staff Writer

September 14, 2024

Central Michigan at Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024: 11 a.m. CST, Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Ill.

Surface: Field Turf

Capacity: 60,670

Records: Central Michigan 1-1; Illinois 2-0

Betting Line: Illinois by 20

Series notes: The first ever meeting between the two schools. Illinois is 8-4 under Bret Bielema through his first 12 non-conference games (including postseason). The only two Illini head coaches to begin their careers with better marks through their first 12 non-league games are legendary leaders Robert Zuppke, who started 10-2 outside of the Big Ten between 1913-18, and George Huff, who also started 10-2 outside of conference play beginning in the first year of Big Ten football in 1896.

TV: Peacock; Jac Collinsworth (play-by-play), Michael Robinson (analyst), and Caroline Pineda (reporter)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Kevin Mitchell (analysis), Michael Martin (sidelines) & Steve Kelly (Pre/HT/Post). The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, SiriusXM and at FightingIllini.com.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Sometimes several aspects of sports can be broken down to a simple concept.

For the Illinois defense through two weeks of play, the ability to create and turn opponent’s mistakes into turnovers has been the catalyst to a 2-0 start and an upset win over then-No. 19 Kansas.

Coming into this week of college football, Illinois (2-0) currently tied for the national lead in turnovers gained (8) and turnover margin (+3.5 per game) and ranks second among Football Bowl Subdivision programs in both interceptions (5) and fumble recoveries (3). The Illini are the only team in the country with two players with two interceptions as Xavier Scott and Miles Scott are tied for third in the nation in interceptions.

In the 23-17 win over Kansas last weekend, Illinois' defense picked off Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels a career-most three times, while forcing him to fumble on the final play of the game. Xavier Scott accounted for three of those takeaways with two interceptions, including a 30-yard interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter and the forced fumble on the game's final play. Xavier Scott is the only player in the nation to force three turnovers in a game this season.

Xavier Scott’s theory on why Illinois has benefited more from what some would call turnover luck is a learned behavior in 2024 spring practices and preseason camp becoming a reality on gamedays.

“It’s simple. We rep it in practice and then it turns out to happen in games,” Xavier Scott said after the Kansas game. “We are taught to make aggressive plays on the ball every single day in practice, so it becomes something natural to do in games. When something becomes an emphasis for months, like (creating turnovers) has been for us, you start to see it happen.”

The Illinois program joined a list of college football programs with their own incentive program in the hope of creating turnovers. Enter the mayhem belt to the Smith Family Football Complex after every practice and game played among the Illini defensive players. It’s a literal professional wrestling look-a-like championship belt that reportedly cost $1,200 where the player that created the most turnover-causing plays on defense gets to wear the belt over his shoulder or around his waist throughout the rest of the day or evening inside the Illini’s football facility.

"There's a lot that goes into it. It's not just a turnover, but doing things a certain way and creating havoc,” Illinois head coach Bret Bielema said. “I really like the way our defensive guys have fundamentally changed some things they've done in the spring and carried it forward this fall about the way we play defense, how we attack the football, how we leverage the game and also the negative side and the things we don't do well and the counter effect.”

Studies of analytical data in college football along with the National Football League have been extensive in an attempt to track the randomness of turnovers throughout a game, a set of weeks, a season and even over the course of a specific dynasty by a powerful program. In a study down by Harvard University mathematicians where they created a formula to track the randomness of turnovers in college and NFL football games and seasons, it was found in the past 10 years, the difference between a Football Bowl Subdivision program being in the top one-third nationally in takeaways and a team in the bottom third is only about one takeaway for every two games played.

“The analytics say that turnovers are way, way more random than coaches or fans think," said Ed Feng, the curator of The Power Rank analytics service who has a Ph.D. in applied math from Stanford. "It's not a perfect way to say there's no skill. It's just that turnovers are a really subtle thing, and randomness plays a much bigger role than people want to think.”

At Illinois, while the cumulative data of turnovers may suggest randomness, what isn’t random is the positive win-loss records for the teams that are near the top of FBS in the turnover margin statistic every year. The Illini last season recorded the fewest interceptions in a full season since 2016. Illinois last season forced its fewest turnovers during a full season in the last 10 years. Illinois went from the most interceptions in the country in 2022 (24) led by three NFL draft picks to tied for 109th nationally in interceptions (7) last season.

“It’s been great to see how my guys in the cornerbacks have taken to the coaching and taken to the saltiness that we went in a Bret Bielema-coached program here at Illinois,” Illinois first-year cornerbacks coach Corey Parker said. “How do we do that? By production on the darn field. We have a mayhem king belt. We have all these things that players are drawn to.”

If last week is any indication of future events, Central Michigan (1-1) will likely give Illinois a chance in this 11 a.m. contest to remain near the top of FBS in turnovers created and turnover margin. In a 52-16 loss at Florida International University last Saturday, CMU committed six turnovers as quarterback Joe Labas was intercepted five times – and the Chippewas were flagged for 10 penalties for 70 yards against the Panthers. Eight of those penalties (for 55 yards) came in the first half. FIU scored 39 points off those six Central Michigan turnovers. FIU’s five interceptions fell one shy of the most by a CMU opponent (Eastern Michigan, 1929).

“There's not an excuse for how we played offensively," CMU head coach Jim McElwain said. “More than tough because any time you give a team 39 points off turnovers, you’re going to lose. The good news is everything that happened in that game is correctable and we need to get our own house in order in that way before we worry about the opponent we’re playing.”