Mike Cagley, Co-Host IlliniGuys Sports Spectacular 

March 5, 2023

Coleman Hawkins courtesy Joe Clark, IlliniGuys

Logistics

• ILLINOIS (20-10, 11-8) at #5 Purdue (25-5, 14-5)
• 11:30 a.m. CT (12:30 p.m. ET) | FOX | West Lafayette, Ind. | Mackey Arena

Series versus Purdue

• All-Time Record: Purdue leads 104-90
• Streak: Purdue W-2
• Last Meeting: #3 Purdue 84 #13 Illinois 68 (Feb. 8, 2022 at West Lafayette)
• Record at West Lafayette: Purdue leads 64-29
• Streak at West Lafayette: Purdue W-1
• Underwood vs. Purdue: 3-4

Coach Underwood Career

• Underwood Career Record: 223-103 (.684), 10th year
• Underwood At Illinois: 114-76 (.600), 6th year
• Underwood in Big Ten: 66-51 (.564)

The Illini wrap up the 2022-2023 regular season with their finale at one of the loudest road venues in the country, Mackey Arena, facing the #5 Purdue Boilermakers. The Illini are 8-point underdogs despite Purdue having lost three of their last five games and having lost four of their last seven games. Purdue is one of three teams to rank in the top 20 of both offensive (11^th) and defensive (15^th) efficiencies, joined by Houston and Alabama. The Illini counter with winning three of their last five, including a thrilling double overtime victory over Michigan on Thursday night.

The stakes are high for this game as while the Boilermakers have clinched the conference regular-season championship, but the Boilers are looking for their 15^th conference victory of the season. The Illini are mathematically still alive for the #2 seed in the Big Ten Conference tournament later in week in Chicago. Illinois faces its third top-10 opponent of the season on Sunday in No. 5 Purdue. Illinois is 2-0 this year against top-10 teams, fighting back from double-digit deficits in both contests. The Illini rank second nationally in top-10 wins over the last four seasons with 11 victories, trailing only Baylor with 14 wins over top-10 teams.

Keys to the Game

1. Double Team & Force Edey to Pass Out of the Post – In Purdue’s last six games, the Boilermakers have shot just 27.5% from the three-point line (33 of 120 attempts). The Illini need to force Edey to pass the ball out to their guards to see if the young guard duo of Braden Smith (shooting 37% from the 3-point line at Mackey) and Fletcher Loyer (shooting 37.8% from the 3-point line at Mackey) can hit from outside. This is a risky strategy as Loyer and Smith have combined for 650 points. They are on pace to become the second-highest freshman-scoring duo in Purdue history.
2. Illini Control the Pace and Not Allow Edey to Get an Offensive Rhythm – Edey can dominate with scoring in the paint. Edey and Michigan’s Chris Webber (1992-93) are the only Big Ten players in the last 30 years to have at least 600 points, 350 rebounds and 50 blocked shots in a season. Only Ohio State's Jerry Lucas (1959-60) has had 700 points and 400 rebounds in a season in Big Ten history. Edey needs 59 points and 21 rebounds to join Lucas on that incredibly inclusive list. The Illini must get up and down the court, despite their lack of depth and make it hard for Edey to keep up with the game’s pace.
3. The Illini Must Not Foul – in a Big Ten conference that coaches on both sides have complained about officiating inconsistencies, one thing has been true, Purdue shoots way more free throws than their opponents. Purdue has MADE 452 free throws this season, while opponents have SHOT just 310 free throws. Purdue has made 224 more free throws (452 to 228) than its foes this season, the highest discrepancy in the nation (Purdue +224, Portland +184, North Carolina +171, New Mexico +161). The Illini cannot withstand a massive free throw deficit while battling the Boilermakers in Mackey Arena.

Prediction

The Illini need the win to have a shot to get the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tourney. Earning the #2 seed should provide an incentive for the Illini to win this challenging road game. At the same time, if the Illini don’t get out and run, the Boilermakers are a particularly bad matchup for the Illini with the “aircraft carrier” on the inside in the form of Edey.

On Saturday, Purdue gained added incentive to defeat the Illini as both Kansas and Alabama both lost. With a win, the Boilermakers will put themselves in the driver's seat for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If earned, this would be the fourth No. 1 seed in school history. Purdue has previously earned the No. 1 seed in 1988, 1994 and 1996. In addition, Zach Edey is the leader to earn consensus National Player of the Year accolades. The last time Purdue earned a No. 1 seed, it was led by its last consensus National Player of the Year recipient, Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson.

I see the Illini struggling with fouls and having both Dainja and Hawkins in foul trouble trying to check Edey. Even if the Purdue team does not get hot from the three, this is a game that the Illini will have to execute perfectly to win. Turnovers have to remain low as they have been recently for the Illini. The Illini must anticipate and ignore the "home cooking officiating" to essentially go into the game expecting to be at a disadvantage in Mackey Arena. The Illini have a habit of losing their cool from call-to-call. This must not happen. A poorly timed technical foul could shift the game dramatically for the visitors. The Illini are not good enough to overcome that type of mental mistake.

Illinois 62

Purdue 77