Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

November 12, 2024

The CFP race is getting crazier each weekend. This week, #3 Georgia and #4 Miami were beaten, making the CFP race even more enthralling for next week. To make it more interesting - #8 Indiana and #9 BYU each won by less than one score. Walking on the razor’s edge is going to be a weekly event as the field is narrowed to 12 teams.

At the same time, Illinois basketball had a heck of a week with the men’s team showing off a staggeringly effective offense (averaging 101 points a game) and the women’s team knocking off #19 Florida State.

On the football side, the 6-3 Illini had a week off to realign their effort to knock off Michigan State in the last home game on November 16.

Heat Check #1 – Underwood’s Team Taking Care of Business

The Illini Men’s Basketball team has done what good teams do:

• Beat the teams you’re supposed to
• Keep getting better (especially compared to the Ole Miss performance)

The team is ahead of where I would’ve expected them from an offensive standpoint. Too often, we’ve watched as Illini teams struggled with a game or two with a team that was not expected to cause the Illini major problems. This team has avoided that.

One can’t get too carried away with optimism as defensively they’ve not been tested since Ole Miss. I like that Illinois is forcing teams to shoot long 2’s. The physicality of Ole Miss at both ends of the court will be replicated in the B1G and in some of their tough non-conference games.

The Illini need to keep progressing. We will know much more after the Alabama game a week from Wednesday as steel sharpens steel.

Let’s look at a few player thoughts:

• Kasparas Jakucionis – he is so fun to watch as he averages 11.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 10 assists per game. What makes me optimistic for KJ is it appears that he’s not forcing anything offensively and he’s not trying to score. Watch out!
• Tomislav Ivišić – folks who follow the IlliniGuys know that I’ve been high on Ivišić. At this point, he’s been better than I had hoped. His court vision is very good, and his footwork is impressive for a true 7-footer.
• Ben Humrichous – he is showing more confidence on the court. And we’ve not even seen any booty ball, yet. Just wait for that!
• Will Riley – sky is the limit on Riley. He’s long and confident. I knew he could score. Getting confidence early in the season is important for freshmen.
• Tre White – seems to be coming along well taking over the role some saw for Ty Rodgers and doing it with a better outside jumper.
• Morez Johnson – love his play. As he gets more confidence in the lane and takes shots up quicker, he’s only going to get even better.
• Kylan Boswell – he won’t have to do as much as an Illini. Hit the jump shot when open, distribute the ball and play good defense. He’s had a slower start but should heat up.
• Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn – he needs to use pace to his advantage. Sometimes he speeds himself up and plays too fast. His athleticism should allow him to cause mismatches due to his speed. He must learn to not overdo it.

I’ve said it over and over. This team has a higher ceiling than last season, but with this many transfers/freshmen, they also have a lower floor. If they had another Terrence Shannon Jr, this Illini team would be a title favorite. Fortunately, with the talent they have, maybe they’ll develop another dominant player by tournament time.

Hail Mary #2 – How Long Will the SEC & B1G Play Nice with CFP Invites on the Line?

This year’s results might allow the B1G and the SEC to dodge a bullet when it comes to the relationship between the two conferences. Both powerhouses have decided that getting along with one another is better than fighting. It appears they look at the rest of the sport as competition for tournament berths in both the football and basketball season-ending tournaments.

As the season started, many forecast some friction between the two conferences when the College Football Playoff (CFP) bids came out. With millions of dollars on the line in the form of CFP bids, many assumed there would be no way to avoid having arguments like “a 2-loss SEC team is better than a 1-loss B1G team” or “a 3-loss SEC team is better than a 2-loss B1G team.”

If those arguments are had this season, it looks like they will be about seeding, not the actual CFP bid.

Let’s look at what we can safely assume:

• The B1G & SEC will have one automatic qualifier for their champions.
• The ACC will have one automatic qualifier with SMU, Miami and Clemson having the inside track.
• The Big 12 will have one automatic qualifier as well with BYU as the leader and Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona State trailing.
• Boise State appears to be the fifth automatic qualifier as a conference champion.
• Notre Dame will make it in with 1 loss, where 2 losses may be fatal to their CFP bid.

This means there are six more openings for the tournament. How will they be divided up?

For the most part, teams that are at the top of the B1G and SEC don’t play each other for the rest of the regular season. Of the CFP contenders only 3 games are played amongst each other: Indiana at Ohio State, Tennessee at Georgia and Texas at Texas A&M. This means determining who gets into the conference championship games could be due to crazy tiebreakers being enacted – including the unlikely but enticing possibility of an old-fashioned coin flip to determine who plays in those games.

If Georgia and Texas A&M win (the home teams) and in all other games the SEC favorites win, you could have 7 teams at 10-2.

If Ohio State beats Indiana and favorites run the table in conference matchups, the B1G would have one undefeated team along with three 1-loss teams.

As it stands right now, the B1G will get their 3 at-large bids leaving 3 more for the SEC. There will be balance. One wonders with the possibility of maybe more 10-2 SEC teams missing the tournament, can a 16-team tournament be implemented sooner rather than later?

Hail Mary #3 – B1G Team Tiers – Talk About Gridlock in the Middle

After week 11, the top tiers are almost locked. Only the game between Indiana traveling to Ohio State is a question mark and a difference maker. An upset can change this, but the way the top 4 teams are playing – upsets look to be almost impossible.

Here is a crazy stat – there are 13 teams in the 18-team league that have between 4 and 6 wins this season. Of these 13 teams, only one team, Illinois, has the chance to win 9 games. The 9 conference games played by the B1G make for less need of tiebreakers but also for a lower number of teams winning 9 or more games like one sees in the SEC with its eight conference games. One wonders if the SEC will stay the same or increase their conference games by one and get paid a lot more broadcasting dollars.

• Tier 1 – Oregon & Ohio State – Oregon and Ohio State are still the top two teams in the league. Ohio State plays Indiana in two weeks and that will crystalize the top of the B1G for this season.
• Tier 2 – Penn State & Indiana – With Georgia and Miami falling both the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers look to capitalize by moving up in the rankings. The Hoosiers have Ohio State in two weeks (after a Hoosier bye week) in a game that is looking like the next big game in the B1G, and this year will eclipse Michigan at Ohio State. Didn’t think I’d say that at the beginning of the season.
• Tier 3 – Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota – None of these three teams won last week. Iowa and Minnesota both lost by one score and Illinois was on its second bye week. These three teams are the only teams with six wins season to date and that puts them above everyone below them. Minnesota and Iowa are on their bye week. Illinois is on a 2-game losing streak and has three winnable games to open the door to a 9-win season as well. No one else in the B1G outside of the top 4 can win 9 games. It’s been that type of season.
• Tier 4 – Wisconsin, Nebraska & Rutgers – Rutgers upset the Golden Gophers last week and neither Wisconsin nor Nebraska played last week. These teams still have a shot at a bowl game. Nebraska is at USC, Rutgers is at Maryland and Wisconsin hosts Oregon. Nebraska and Rutgers games are tossups, but I don’t see the Ducks losing to Wisconsin.
• Tier 5 – UCLA, Michigan, Michigan State, USC & Washington – UCLA on a 3-game winning streak faces off against Washington losers of 3 of their last 4 games in a losers go to Tier 6 game. Michigan gets a bye week. Michigan State looks to knock Illinois into a November free fall and USC the loser of 4 of its last 5 games, faces a sagging Nebraska team that has lost 3 in a row.
• Tier 6 – Purdue, Northwestern & Maryland – Purdue is in a total freefall and hosting Penn State won’t help matters at all. Northwestern is in a similar place hosting Ohio State. Maryland faces rival Rutgers. There’s a good chance Tier 6 will get more company next week.

According to the AP poll, the B1G now has four of the top 5 teams in the country. As things stand, the B1G could do very well in the seeding for the CFP. At that point, it's win and move on to prove how good their team and their conference is.

Enjoy the podcast:

Heat Checks & Hail Marys - How Long Will B1G & SEC Play Nice, Illini Hoops Update & B1G Football Tiers

Heat Checks & Hail Marys - How Long Will B1G & SEC Play Nice, Illini Hoops Update & B1G Football Tiers - YouTube Edition